Both are trading below mNav

Nakamoto (NAKA) trades at 0.52x mNAV with a $329 million market cap against 5,765 BTC valued at $634 million — a 48% discount to its Bitcoin holdings. Strive (ASST) hovers at 0.848x mNAV with a $549 million market cap against 5,885 BTC worth $647.65 million — a 15% discount.

Two questions come to life: Are these broken stocks or broken prices? Does the unlock cascade create a contrarian buying opportunity, or do sub-NAV valuations signal permanent value destruction?

How the PIPE raise crushed both stocks

NAKA’s collapse exemplifies PIPE destruction at scale. The company raised $763 million, including $563 million in PIPE financing to buy Bitcoin. Since its May 2025 Bitcoin treasury debut, shares have collapsed from the mid-to-high $20s to its current price of $0.80. With 413 million shares outstanding and a $329 million basic market cap against 5,765 Bitcoin worth $635 million, NAKA trades well below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. For a company that dubs itself a Bitcoin treasury of Bitcoin treasuries, these figures are not auspicious. Indeed, the discount to NAV signals that the market is assigning negative value to management, operation, and future execution.

Strive (ASST) presents a different but also troubled post-PIPE situation. The company raised $750 million via PIPE at around $1.35 per share — a 121% premium to pre-merger prices — to fund its 5,885 Bitcoin acquisition. Shares have since fallen to $0.86, a 36% decline from the PIPE price. With a $549 million basic market cap against $647.2 million in Bitcoin holdings, ASST trades at 0.848x basic mNAV.

Bull Case 🐂

All the PIPE selling is done

NAKA at 0.52x mNAV offers a staggering 48% discount to its $634 million Bitcoin holdings. If an investor bought the entire $329 million market cap and liquidated the Bitcoin treasury, they’d theoretically realize $305 million in immediate profit.

Meanwhile, ASST at 0.84x basic mNAV provides a 15% discount to its $647.65 million holdings. These discounts exist because markets fear value destruction, but contrarians might argue that the fear is overblown. Capitulation post-unlock can create maximum pessimism and minimum prices.

For instance, NAKA could compress to 1.0x mNAV from 0.52x — offering investors a 92% return — just from multiple expansion with zero Bitcoin appreciation required . On the other hand, if ASST were to move to 1.0x from its current 0.84x then investors would reap a 19% upside. The post-PIPE bottom creates the classic value opportunity.

Bear case 🐻

Sub-NAV valuations exist because investors expect continued value destruction. NAKA’s 98% collapse to $0.80 from $34.77 isn’t just PIPE unlock pressure — it’s total market rejection. The company can’t raise capital at these valuations without further destroying per-share NAV. And without more capital, it can’t buy Bitcoin. Without purchases, premiums stay compressed. The doom loop continues until liquidation.

….. Ahh now I understand why these companies are priced close to bankruptcy and the $1 LEAP options are so cheap while expiry is almost 3 years away for one of my positions.

I think bitcoin is the tide that lifts all boats. If the bull market comes and these companies don’t get grounded into dust it is a non zero chance that both of these stocks can rise above $1. It’s a risky asymmetrical investment. I added to my LEAP position today but this article put some cold water on my speculative investment.

208 sats \ 0 replies \ @freetx 20h

All these companies royally screwed their non-PIPE investors. The whole thing was a pure handout to the fiat participants.

Imagine: PIPE Investors buy in at 1:1 NAV with 30-day restrictions (that is no restrictions beyond normal new listings). Those who actually put up Bitcoin that add directly to the Treasury, come in at 2:1 (in the case of ASST). The stock is then issued at >2 NAV which new investors gobble up.

Its no surprise that the fiat participants are just going to instantly dump at any level >1 NAV. Literal free money.

How can anyone trust management when they put that deal together and promoted it?

In the case of ASST its even more dubious: ASST (Asset Entities) was a social media marketing firm. Strive comes along and offers them a 21% premium to buy all their stock and convert them into a bitcoin treasury company. The existing shareholders of ASST were themselves under no restrictions not to mention they were a social media company, so they heavily promoted the deal on social media.

So you had existing ASST shareholders and PIPE participants both dumping.

138 sats \ 2 replies \ @justin_shocknet 18h

at .52 book NAKA seems worth a lottery ticket, bear case doesn't add up, they dont have to raise or liquidate at those levels, there's a $300M incentive dangling out there to take them private

GBTC was around .5 NAV for awhile during the bear market, liquidity is everything

17 sats \ 1 reply \ @BlokchainB OP 17h

Yeah this is why I think the market is mis-pricing Bitcoin treasury companies. Lotto ticket on these two option plays is worth a shot especially if you are looking for crazy growth.

Just think if Bitcoin becomes the new AI trade companies with any Bitcoin on their balance sheet become prime targets for buyouts and acquisitions.

248 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 17h

Yea if something like mstr getting added to the s&p happens naka would probably squeeze as the hoard looks for the next arb

69 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 21h

the discount to NAV signals that the market is assigning negative value to management, operation, and future execution.

100%

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BITC0IN 17h

No.