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174 sats \ 5 replies \ @freetx 18h \ on: Zeihan - China Going to Zero econ
Lets not forget he also thinks Bitcoin is going to 0 - said on Rogan.
As long as China continues to produce more than its consuming, there is very little chance its going to spectacularly "disappear". I've come to be suspicious of demographic arguments, for similar reasons why I distrust GDP arguments.
GDP advocates just wind up cheering for inflation, whereas demographic advocates cheer for unskilled, extremely poor net-resource-drain migrants.
As long as China continues to produce more than its consuming
I don't think that's quite the right metric. Popular discontent comes from regular people not seeing those gains.
For decades, the standard of living has been rising rapidly in China and that was the implicit tradeoff for living under an authoritarian regime. In recent years, though, people are feeling more strain than gain, which is dangerous for the regime.
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No doubt China is changing and perhaps a burgeoning middle-class will exert different political pressures.
However I view the metric of "produce more than consume" from a proxy lens. That is, it serves as proxy to see the net-sum health of "China Inc". As long as that metric is positive, then it indicates that the net economic forces still favor the structure that got them here.
Obviously anythings possible, and highly dynamic revolutions can spring out of nowhere.
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I'm thinking that net profitability actually invites upheaval from a public that isn't sharing in it, similar to a hostile takeover in finance.
People want in on the profits.
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