Zeihan - China Going to Zero \ stacker news ~econ

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Zeihan - China Going to Zero youtu.be/e0LQFVn0Od4

Every so often I like to see what this clown is up to. He's doubling down on his thesis that China as we know it ends within the next 10 years. Still giving the same reason - demographics/aging population.

It's only a few minutes if you care to watch.

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174 sats \ 5 replies \ @freetx 9h

Every so often I like to see what this clown is up to. He's doubling down on his thesis that China as we know it ends within the next 10 years. Still giving the same reason - demographics/aging population.

Lets not forget he also thinks Bitcoin is going to 0 - said on Rogan.

As long as China continues to produce more than its consuming, there is very little chance its going to spectacularly "disappear". I've come to be suspicious of demographic arguments, for similar reasons why I distrust GDP arguments.

GDP advocates just wind up cheering for inflation, whereas demographic advocates cheer for unskilled, extremely poor net-resource-drain migrants.

21 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 9h

As long as China continues to produce more than its consuming

I don't think that's quite the right metric. Popular discontent comes from regular people not seeing those gains.

For decades, the standard of living has been rising rapidly in China and that was the implicit tradeoff for living under an authoritarian regime. In recent years, though, people are feeling more strain than gain, which is dangerous for the regime.

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @freetx 9h

No doubt China is changing and perhaps a burgeoning middle-class will exert different political pressures.

However I view the metric of "produce more than consume" from a proxy lens. That is, it serves as proxy to see the net-sum health of "China Inc". As long as that metric is positive, then it indicates that the net economic forces still favor the structure that got them here.

Obviously anythings possible, and highly dynamic revolutions can spring out of nowhere.

75 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 9h

I'm thinking that net profitability actually invites upheaval from a public that isn't sharing in it, similar to a hostile takeover in finance.

People want in on the profits.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT OP 8h

The older generations had it 10x worse and they're still around to remind the young how much better it is now.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT OP 9h

Lets not forget he also thinks Bitcoin is going to 0 - said on Rogan.

That was the first thing that came to mind when he said it. But even funnier is that he said it would go negative!

I haven't seen him say anything about Bitcoin since that interview BTW

77 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 9h

Totalitarian regimes can fall very quickly and they can linger far longer than seems plausible.

42 sats \ 3 replies \ @OT OP 9h

It's hard for me to see how that could happen.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 9h

Sure, but nobody saw the Soviet Union collapse coming at the time, either.

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @OT OP 9h

That might be a good one to research a little deeper. What life was like before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 9h

I've seen a few different hypotheses and it doesn't seem like the proximate causes are fully established.

However, the sense I have is that they ceased being able to control public perception in a variety of ways and the end came quickly after that.

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @carter 8h

I used to watch what he said a lot closer but there are definitely cracks, There are other commentators who aren't bullish on China I feel like I get 2 stories: China is god and nothing is wrong they are gonna kick our ass and China is in super trouble all the local governments are up to the tits in debt and Trump's tariffs aren't helping. Some counter to that Ive heard lately is their exports to other countries are growing but the question is will they be ok without the worlds largest consumer base

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT OP 7h

Recently all I hear about from the macro guys is that China is winning and the rest of the world better watch out. That's why I wanted to check in on Zeihan to see if he capitulated.

For me seeing the growth of China's energy production makes it really hard for me to see them simply "go to zero".

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @stack_harder 8h

i can still hear his Bitcoin prediction on Rogan like it was yesterday. i'd value his opinion more if he would own up to his wrong calls, but the guys an ego maniac

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT OP 8h

100%

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 5h

Inb4 the rare earths bot

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 6h

China leads the world in robotics. That combined with their raising retirement age from 50-55 for women and 55-60 for men goes a long way to solving the demographic problem. Most western nations have similar or worse demographics problems but they cannot as easily raise retirement age and they do not lead in robotics.