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30 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 2h \ parent \ on: Research in Public #05: Does btc price affect SN behavior? Experiment failure! econ
I could come up with some ad hoc, but it shouldn't really matter. As a general hypothesis, I'd expect those who have been more active for a longer time to be less price sensitive and bitcoin related territories to be less price sensitive.
That's partially answered in this post, at least in a way that no economist would doubt. From what I could tell, for most stackers, zapping more has earned them a net positive return. That's why I was on such a campaign to get stackers to zap more.
Why would you lose data converting to real-time dollar values? The fixed effects would still be weekly and granular btc price data must be available.
The difference should just be that you're averaging the dollar value of posting fees paid per territory, rather than multiplying the average bitcoin price for the week by the territory fee.
As I'm typing, I realize it wouldn't be easy to back out the direct impact of bitcoin price. You could still compare the sensitivity of posting behavior to bitcoin vs fiat denominated costs.
I'm not a time-series expert either and it was probably the part of econometrics I struggled with the most.
Why would you lose data converting to real-time dollar values? The fixed effects would still be weekly and granular btc price data must be available.
You're right. I was thinking about it wrongly for a second there. I would be really surprised if daily fluctuations mattered even after controlling for week fixed effects. I should probably try it, but if that were to happen I'd probably think it was bot related.
That's partially answered in this post
This is why it's so tricky. If zapping actually leads to positive ROI denominated in sats, then higher bitcoin price should incentivize more zapping, not less. I do think there's some variation to be exploited regarding the return function between reward amount and zap amount.
Another tricky thing about this is that the reward system has changed multiple times throughout SN's life, which means I'd have to try and back out those periods.
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There was one month when the rewards were entirely based on zapping and another when they were entirely based on posting/commenting.
Maybe looking at those two months separately could tell us something about responsiveness to rewards for zapping.
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Good idea. I need to dig through k00b's announcements on reward changes and construct a history of regime switches.
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