A popular analyst who goes by the name Troy Teslike currently expects Tesla to sell a record 178,000 vehicles in the US this quarter, which is two-thirds of the way through, up from 156,000 a year ago. (Tesla doesn’t break out vehicle deliveries by region, so Teslike backs up those numbers using Vehicle Identification Number data.)

The surge, he says, is due in part to pulled-forward demand from subsequent quarters, as EV buyers generally try and purchase vehicles before the government’s $7,500 credit ends on September 30.