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384 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 5 Sep \ on: Where's the Shovelware? Why AI Coding Claims Don't Add Up - Mike Judge AI
I’ve been pretty confident that this initial AI boom will be another tech bubble.
That doesn’t mean it won’t eventually meet and exceed the hype. It just won’t do it immediately.
I'm not sure. I don't want to be too trusting, but I am still vividly remembering how when the first Ai generated images came out and the fingers were all messed up and I said to myself "sure, but I'll always be able to tell, just look at the fingers!" and it took them like six months to fix that problem.
I can theorize all I like about LLMs being "word calculators" (Allen Farrington's excellent term), but then I use the darn things, and I find them helpful -- and the experience is so darn hard to pin down. I know it's not thinking, but how much better does it have to get before I won't be able to tell the difference? And at that point, will it matter if it is not thinking?
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it took them like six months to fix that problem
This is key.
I think @Undisciplined is right that it's a bubble and I 100% believe that LLM coding underdelivers when measured against the promises originating from VC banter. It does for me personally in my experiments, and I have yet to see someone propose a close-to-acceptable LLM coded pull request on any of the repos I maintain. I've had one AI-generated 3-liner on a python repo that was ok to let through. In 8 months or so.
Here's how I currently expect for this to go: businesses prematurely adopt AI and change hiring decisions, classic FOMO. There will absolutely be significant problems coming from this. Many businesses will fail because they will mess up and others will solve the problems and thrive. Humans ultimately always solve problems if they have to.
Bottom line, this is what disruption does: there will be losers, but there will be progress.
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I have no doubt that it will progress quickly and be highly productivity enhancing. So was the internet 25 years ago.
My expectation is more that it will be misapplied and overhyped by people taking advantage of investors’ lack of understanding about what reasonable expectations are.
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