Judge presents the Fermi's Paradox of AI assisted coding:
If so many developers are so extraordinarily productive using these tools, where is the flood of shovelware? We should be seeing apps of all shapes and sizes, video games, new websites, mobile apps, software-as-a-service apps — we should be drowning in choice. We should be in the middle of an indie software revolution. We should be seeing 10,000 Tetris clones on Steam.
The most interesting thing about these charts is what they’re not showing. They’re not showing a sudden spike or hockey-stick line of growth. They’re flat at best. There’s no shovelware surge. There’s no sudden indie boom occurring post-2022/2023. You could not tell looking at these charts when AI-assisted coding became widely adopted. The core premise is flawed. Nobody is shipping more than before.
He did a lot of this real search himself, and his conclusion:
This whole thing is bullshit.
Admitting I'm not a developer, I'm not sure that I am ready to go down such a negative path, but it's nice to hears counter to the pressures of AI adoption.