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74 sats \ 31 replies \ @grayruby 1 Sep
I think this presumes a lot about China.
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51 sats \ 25 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Sep
It presumes a lot about a lot of things. 50 year projections are insane.
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53 sats \ 24 replies \ @grayruby 1 Sep
Sure but China especially.
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62 sats \ 14 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 1 Sep
I think india can be there at the top if only it manages to remain as it is now.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 2 Sep
huh?
if only it manages to remain as it is now? wtf are you talking about
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61 sats \ 12 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Sep
India's not unreasonable at all, depending on the likelihood of a major secession event.
In 1975, China was one of the poorest countries on Earth and they climbed all the way to second.
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52 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 2 Sep
because Mao died in 1976 and Deng Xioping consolidated leadership in 1977
India is not China for many reasons
Will India impose a one child policy like China did in 1975?
edit: if 40 percent of GDP is in agriculture, India's income per capita will not improve
Nigeria will be in the top 10? is that reasonable?
50 year projections are stupid
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Sep
We agree on the last point
No one expected China to be China either. The point is that even huge poor economies can grow rapidly in the right circumstances.
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82 sats \ 9 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 1 Sep
Yes. I think (and most Indians believe) that the party that has been ruling till 2014 has kept India behind. And it looks so true when you know how India looked pre Modi and now.
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72 sats \ 8 replies \ @kepford 1 Sep
Isn't the current gov very anti free market?
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76 sats \ 7 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 1 Sep
Actually not.
This government has been more liberal than the previous one as far as market is concerned. They have been doing so many reforms to trade and FDA policies but they have just been cautious because they can't hurt India's SMEs which are core to it's growth.
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40 sats \ 7 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Sep
Maybe. I think China has better odds of being an intact nation than half of the top 10.
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42 sats \ 6 replies \ @grayruby 1 Sep
I am not sure that political system can hold up another 50 years with a generation of people who expect a decent and consistently improving standard of living. Demographics, lack of resources are also huge issues for them.
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40 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Sep
Sure, but I think the odds are decent that what comes next will be economically freer.
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42 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 1 Sep
Probably but I guess it depends on the timeline of that because the transition is probably drawn out and painful.
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40 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Sep
The Mao to Deng transition was very swift
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 2 Sep
but what about India and Pakistan
please...
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40 sats \ 0 replies \ @guerratotal 1 Sep
I think the same, I see it more as communist propaganda, even placing India ahead of the USA.
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40 sats \ 3 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 1 Sep
This here is in fact 'Goldman Sachs'. Too much anti America!
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20 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 1 Sep
Goldman put this out so they could sell more of their international funds that they probably charge 3 and 30 to manage.
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40 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 1 Sep
Bingo
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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 1 Sep
I sensed it. But one thing looks correct that US won't be at the top.
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21 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford 1 Sep
I consider myself very under-informed on China and India but I think these points are true.
- Pure Communism fails
- Pure free markets don't.
- Mixed economies of either can fail or prosper
China seems like it learned from the failures of the USSR both economically and militarily. It's liberalized economically and due to that fact it has boomed.
They have not directly challenged the USA militarily like the USSR has. Instead they seem to favor trade with emerging markets over proxy wars. Yeah, they do these nations dirty and I am not a fan but they seem more subtle than the US.
Now, the US learned from the British empire and has surpassed its power. I can see a future when China is the biggest power but they are going to either have to further let go of central planning or the US and other powers will have to further adopt it.
I'm not cheering for China. I hope we can see more people living more free lives on sound money.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter OP 1 Sep
I agree.
Sound money is definitely the way ahead. I consider India will be far far better because 1). It's not communist 2). The constitution of India much more balanced 3). India is not dependant on exports for it's growth. 4). Indians are born investors and consume only what's needed. Haha
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 1 Sep
Where have pure free markets ever resulted in anything other than failure?
All wealthy and successful empire have been a combination of free enterprise and judicious government.
The British Empire combined a strong military, mostly Navy, with strong legal and monetary systems and well regulated financial markets.
The US has succeeded the British Empire and is equally reliant upon military dominance and control of international institutions and protocols to maintain its hegemony and wealth. Most of the US GDP is derived from 'financial services and manufacture of military equipment- debt and death.
The control of trade routes, access to commodities and markets and protection of territory are all significant factors where free markets alone will always fail without strong partnership with government.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 1 Sep
Chinas share of global exports of goods is already double that of the US.
https://unctad.org/topic/trade-analysis/chart-10-may-2021
USA is hugely dependent now upon its domination of the global financial system based on its petrodollar hegemony via the SWIFT protocol.
Already China has built alternative protocols that operate outside of the SWIFT/USD hegemony and provision trade payments liquidity for Russia, Iran,N.Korea and increasingly, other nations like Saudi Arabia who have already joined Chinas mBridge protocol.
India is ranked 20th on the scale of nations share in global goods traded.
While a large internal economy India is relatively small in terms of global trade in goods.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 1 Sep
GDP figures are hugely misleading if you are wanting to understand the relative wealth and power.
Indias GDP is almost all consumed within India.
Most of US GDP is via 'financial services' - not goods or commodities.
This charts shows a more accurate picture of the evolving competitiveness and productivity of the major economies and is based on real data rather than Goldman Sachs projections -
https://unctad.org/topic/trade-analysis/chart-10-may-2021
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