I think there is an under-the-table part of the economy, often involving immigrants and cash, that is important to large parts of the US economy.

Firing more government workers only has a superficial effect on costs savings for government... medicare social security and defense have the biggest impacts on government outflows (in addition to interest payments of course) and so the effect of 'deporting immigrants' is greatly exaggerated.

In addition, companies may not be 'laying off' people so much as not hiring, as the trade and tariff uncertainty means that companies are uncertain to invest and spend money hiring and training people.

It puts private industry in a 'wait and see' mode... instead of a 'growth' mode.

Meanwhile the Fed can't cut... and won't raise interest rates and so whatever decision they make is some sort of compromise between inflation and unemployment. In the 70s it was called 'stagflation'... now they would call it???

Meanwhile the government continues to borrow putting up-pressure on long-term interest rates... and the political instability (associated with MAGA but ultimately bipartisan) isn't helping things.

Gold is good. So are commodities in general. Bitcoin is Best. Eventually the world will 'de-risk' out of the United States and into Bitcoin because it is harder to corrupt than the United States... and a better place for long-term capital growth and preservation in a multi-polar world.

That's it.