Tons of charts in this analysis, the main premise:
The crackdown on illegal immigration has dramatically slowed the influx of immigrants into the labor force, and thereby the supply of labor, and the labor force declined further in July.At the same time, the pace of job creation by employers has slowed, in part due to the headcount reduction by the federal government (-84,000 since January, compared to +25,000 over the same period in 2024).[W]ith growth of the supply of labor down, and with growth of demand for labor down by about the same amount, within these changing dynamics on both the supply side and the demand side, the labor market is roughly in balance with a historically low unemployment rate that has been between 4.1% and 4.2% for the past 13 months.
Less government jobs + less job seekers = statistical stability in unemployment, but, a larger percentage of non-farm jobs not being in government means that jobs are more "productive", so this sounds like a good development to me. What does ~econ think?