Using an inference-based methodology, we estimate that at least 329,000 refugees worldwide have already used Bitcoin to preserve or transfer wealth during displacement, a number that could grow to between 6.5 and 7.5 million by 2035 under current trends

okay...

We used UNHCR countrylevel refugee population figures and crypto adoption rates from TripleA’s 2024 report, which estimates 6.8% of the global population owns cryptocurrency. For the top 50 refugee-origin countries (covering ~98% of refugees), we used national crypto ownership rates to estimate refugee adoption. For example, if 10% of Country A’s population owns crypto, we assumed a similar rate among its refugees.

okay?!?

Since not all crypto users hold Bitcoin, we applied a 65% adjustment based on Binance Research (2021), which found Bitcoin to be the most commonly held crypto. Although this may understate Bitcoin ownership – especially in unstable economies where Bitcoin adoption is often higher – we used it to stay aligned with verified data and avoid overestimation.

okay?!?!?!

Critically, we excluded refugees who remain in camps or similar situations without the infrastructure to use Bitcoin. Roughly 22% of the world’s refugees live in longterm camps or settlements where internet and financial access are minimal (USA for UNHCR, 2021).

cool

A.k.a this is an exercise in statistics. Could also be 10, or 10M.