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Bring Only What You Can Carry - Bitcoin’s Role in Refugee Wealth Preservationwww.da-ri.org/articles/bring-only-what-you-can-carry
225 sats \ 6 comments \ @Scoresby 8h bitcoin
we estimate that at least 329,000 refugees worldwide have already used Bitcoin to preserve or transfer wealth during displacement, a number that could grow to between 6.5 and 7.5 million by 2035 under current trends.
Note that the methods don't involve talking to any specific refugees:
We combined public refugee data with global crypto ownership rates, applying multiple adjustments to ensure a cautious, minimum estimate. We used UNHCR country-level refugee population figures and crypto adoption rates from TripleA’s 2024 report, which estimates 6.8% of the global population owns cryptocurrency. For the top 50 refugee-origin countries (covering ~98% of refugees), we used national crypto ownership rates to estimate refugee adoption. For example, if 10% of Country A’s population owns crypto, we assumed a similar rate among its refugees.
Nonetheless, it's a cool idea and they make some interesting estimates.
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152 sats \ 2 replies \ @optimism 8h
Using an inference-based methodology, we estimate that at least 329,000 refugees worldwide have already used Bitcoin to preserve or transfer wealth during displacement, a number that could grow to between 6.5 and 7.5 million by 2035 under current trends
okay...
We used UNHCR countrylevel refugee population figures and crypto adoption rates from TripleA’s 2024 report, which estimates 6.8% of the global population owns cryptocurrency. For the top 50 refugee-origin countries (covering ~98% of refugees), we used national crypto ownership rates to estimate refugee adoption. For example, if 10% of Country A’s population owns crypto, we assumed a similar rate among its refugees.
okay?!?
Since not all crypto users hold Bitcoin, we applied a 65% adjustment based on Binance Research (2021), which found Bitcoin to be the most commonly held crypto. Although this may understate Bitcoin ownership – especially in unstable economies where Bitcoin adoption is often higher – we used it to stay aligned with verified data and avoid overestimation.
okay?!?!?!
Critically, we excluded refugees who remain in camps or similar situations without the infrastructure to use Bitcoin. Roughly 22% of the world’s refugees live in longterm camps or settlements where internet and financial access are minimal (USA for UNHCR, 2021).
cool
A.k.a this is an exercise in statistics. Could also be 10, or 10M.
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100 sats \ 1 reply \ @Scoresby OP 8h
Yeah. I probably should have just let it alone. But I so like the concept...
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102 sats \ 0 replies \ @optimism 7h
At first thought, yes. At second thought, everything you dump on the market at a time when there's massive supply and no demand, for BTC, means it's going for sats on the BTC, if even.
So I don't think this scales.
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204 sats \ 0 replies \ @guerratotal 4h
As a migrant, I can attest to this; part of the money I brought to Brazil when I left Cuba was in Bitcoin.
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102 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 8h
if 10% of Country A’s population owns crypto, we assumed a similar rate among its refugees
That's a bold assumption and extremely unlikely to hold in practice. I would imagine that it depends on the correlation between refugee status and socioeconomic status
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Signal312 6h
Yeah, I think you're right.
The people with wealth have already gotten out, before they get classified as "refugees".
Cool concept though.
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