I think he has a solid shot of taking votes from both parties. Plus he owns X he can control the narrative and spy on DMs and pay influencers to hype his message.

The PACs and SuperPacs can’t compete with his war chest of wealth. And god knows how many space x shares he owns.

I think Elon doing this is a showcase of new money vs old establishment. The uniparty is deeply entrenched and Trump still placates them (especially the NeoCons)