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51 sats \ 7 replies \ @teemupleb 6 Jul \ parent \ on: Favorite btc price models / simulators? bitcoin
I like the model “have more bitcoin in self-custody this month than in the previous month”
that is a nice model, when in your earning years!
some of us are in the withdrawal years of our lives, so we need to buy food, shelter, etc... with our bitcoin instead of accumulating more
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I've stopped trying to explain this to people, but I feel better hearing you say it :)
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Bitcoin is just money. Money has no inherent value except the trade value for goods/services (both today and its future value). Humans don't need bitcoin. But I do need bananas and eggs and a car and a home etc...
So yes, what you can get for your bitcoin is critically important. That value is typically denominated against a fiat currency because we all understand that $0.25 can typically buy a banana. Or that $30,000 can buy a car.
99.999% of the world does not price bananas or cars in btc. That is why the "fiat brain" exists, because we still live in the fiat world.
We can hope for that to transition sooner rather than later, but pretending it isn't that way doesn't make it so.
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I think that's the best case - as a reminder about mindset. Some utility in that. But there are very pragmatic reasons to care about price, as above, and receiving the mantra does those people no good when they need info to make important life decisions.
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Since zero people hold their retirement savings in cash, a more honest one would be an S&P chart, and a btc chart, and then circle all the drawdowns on both, and wish them the best.
Or you could, like, explain how the elements fit together with a pricing model. Like I originally asked for.
But you give the advice you think will be most helpful in your role as Uncle Jim. I'll do the same. Best of luck to your loved ones.