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Favorite btc price models / simulators?
625 sats \ 24 comments \ @elvismercury 6 Jul bitcoin
Not too long ago, I came across what I thought was the most interesting btc price model yet; it was a simulation you could screw around with extensively, put in different drawdown models, dispersal strategies, etc. It was cool, and non-trivial, which I appreciate after so many magical-thinking rainbow graphs and stock-to-flow hopium models.
And I can't fucking find it now.
So I figured maybe it would be a good time to ask people to share their favorite ones, partly in an attempt to find the one I'm looking for, partly to consolidate them a little bit for others.
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1087 sats \ 1 reply \ @79c9095526 6 Jul
This one is my favorite: https://bitcoincompounding.com/
Here are a few more though: https://btcretirementcalculator.vercel.app/ https://calc.bitcoineracademy.com/
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 6 Jul
None of those are what I was thinking of, but they are all great, thank you!
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1027 sats \ 3 replies \ @OT 7 Jul
Maybe it was this?
https://stackmath.xyz/
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76 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury OP 7 Jul
That's the one! Gracias.
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27 sats \ 1 reply \ @OT 7 Jul
Lol
This is why I have hundreds of tabs open from years ago
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 7 Jul
See, you knew it would pay off and it did :)
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21 sats \ 3 replies \ @Bell_curve 6 Jul
Doubling time is log 2 divided by slope
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38 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 6 Jul
That graph suggests additional curvature, since the ends are below trend and the middle is above.
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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 6 Jul
good observation
doubling time is gradually increasing, i.e. price is taking too long to double damn it
edit: I should add that this is based on July 4 prices, using Jan 1 or Dec 31 is probably more accurate with calendar year time series
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11 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 6 Jul
It makes sense that price growth will slow as we approach the equilibrium exchange rate, at least until the dollar collapses.
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11 sats \ 8 replies \ @grayruby 6 Jul
1sat=1sat as a mental model is my favourite.
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51 sats \ 7 replies \ @teemupleb 6 Jul
I like the model “have more bitcoin in self-custody this month than in the previous month”
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301 sats \ 6 replies \ @79c9095526 6 Jul
that is a nice model, when in your earning years!
some of us are in the withdrawal years of our lives, so we need to buy food, shelter, etc... with our bitcoin instead of accumulating more
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50 sats \ 5 replies \ @elvismercury OP 6 Jul
I've stopped trying to explain this to people, but I feel better hearing you say it :)
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 6 Jul
It takes time to reprogram the fiat brain. I still get caught up in all the hype (and or doom) of fiat price movements but it helps me focus on just stacking sats and not getting emotional with fomo or whatever the inverse of fomo is (fogb- fear of going broke?).
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192 sats \ 0 replies \ @79c9095526 6 Jul
Bitcoin is just money. Money has no inherent value except the trade value for goods/services (both today and its future value). Humans don't need bitcoin. But I do need bananas and eggs and a car and a home etc...
So yes, what you can get for your bitcoin is critically important. That value is typically denominated against a fiat currency because we all understand that $0.25 can typically buy a banana. Or that $30,000 can buy a car.
99.999% of the world does not price bananas or cars in btc. That is why the "fiat brain" exists, because we still live in the fiat world.
We can hope for that to transition sooner rather than later, but pretending it isn't that way doesn't make it so.
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84 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury OP 6 Jul
I think that's the best case - as a reminder about mindset. Some utility in that. But there are very pragmatic reasons to care about price, as above, and receiving the mantra does those people no good when they need info to make important life decisions.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @bitcoingecko 6 Jul
I'm a fan of looking at hashrate over price charts.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @flat24 7 Jul
partly to consolidate them a little bit for others.
It is an excellent idea, and thank you very much.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @d680ecaa8e 7 Jul
I think Pi Cycle Top Indicator and VanEck analysts.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Grateful 6 Jul
Hodl.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @HighOfLot 7 Jul outlawed
stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.