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Aaaaaah man, here's a story @Undisciplined will love.
So, there are a few famous meta-data indicators around political-financial events: taxi rides between large NYC banks and the New York Fed building, for instance. (here and here)
Another, that was in the news recently with the Israel-Iran thing, was pizza orders in and around the Pentagon. Here's the summary:
Three readers independently emailed me with variants on what in retrospect is sort of an obvious question, which is: “Is it market manipulation to order like 200 pizzas to an office near the Pentagon, and then buy calls on oil?
YEEEESS, my DUUUDEs that's how we do it, ah.
...too bad, though, that nobody is trading on the Pizza data itself, even though it's a leading indicator of geopolitical events going down (and thus oil prices going up).

"obviously if nobody trades on that data then you’ve just wasted money on pizza."

Hashtag PhD proposal
Trading one security with inside information about another security seems bad in some fuzzy but obvious way; ordering too many pizzas to trick people into buying oil is murkier. “Park 100 cars in the parking lot of some retailer announcing earnings next week, and buy calls on the company,” that sort of thing:

"You were misleading someone, probably (the hedge funds examining satellite images of that parking lot), but why did they think they were entitled to rely on that parking lot for their trading?"

Man, these are excellent trolling attempts.
...almost as funny as this.

available via Newsletterhunt: https://newsletterhunt.com/emails/191551
43 sats \ 0 replies \ @Scoresby 10h
Measures and targets. I was at a conference earlier this year and some tradfi guy was on stage saying all the predictions turned out wrong, because predictions about the market are hard. Maybe so, but predictions immediately become a part of the market and are reacted to. Wiley prognosticators lead their predictions like skeet shooters lead their clay pigeons, but maybe this should more accurately be that they bait them like hunters use salt licks.
The only good prediction is one that you never tell anyone about.
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33 sats \ 1 reply \ @seashell 7h
this is why signal is a mirage in tradfi, the second you find one, someone turns it into noise. pizza, parking lots, satellite heatmaps… it’s all just the financial version of counterintelligence ops. wonder how much of the market is actual info vs just games played between players trying to fake each other out.
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you could ask that question about most financial markets, really. How much is real-world benefit and how much is games between hedge fund players and/or dumb retail money?
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How bout this?
Step 1: Load up on YES shares for SN hits 1.5m items in 2025 on Predyx.
Step 2: Pull an ek
Step 3: Sell YES shares on Predyx
Step 4: Pull a denlillaapan
Step 5: Repeat step 1
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Unbelievable!
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38 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 16h
The pizza indicator was probably very useful when no one knew about it. Now that everyone knows about it probably not so much.
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I do love this. I'm all for trolling the trad-fi bros.
If this sort of thing worked, I'd expect the Saudis to pump oil futures via fake pizza orders.
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