Injury Luck is not a repeatable skill in the NFL \ stacker news ~Stacker

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Injury Luck is not a repeatable skill in the NFL

817 sats \ 8 comments \ @grayruby 14h Stacker_Sports

Last season the 49ers were the most injured team in the league and it showed because they sucked and finished 6-11. The second most injured team was @Undisciplined's Raiders. They sucked even more.

Some of the other notable highly injured teams were the Lions (no surprise with almost all of their D out near the end of the year) and the Rams. Who both seemed to be able to overcome their injuries to still be contenders. This is likely due to the fact that all of the Rams injuries seemed to occur in the first third of the season and the Lions in the last third so they still had relatively healthy teams for the majority of the year.

The healthiest teams in the league last year were the Ravens, Eagles, Bears, Falcons and Commanders.

I noticed a pattern reviewing this injury data. Almost all of the healthiest teams in the league in 2023 finished in the bottom 1/3 of the league in terms of health in 2024. Rams were the healthiest in 2023 and they finished 23/32. Raiders were the second healthiest team in 2023 and they finished 31/32. 49ers were the 4th healthiest team in 2023 and finished 32/32. Saints were the 5th healthiest team and finished 29/32. Only the Bengals were able to buck the trend. They were the 3rd healthiest team in 2023 and barely squeaked into the top half of the league at 15. Still quite a drop off from 3.

Conversely, of the top 5 healthiest teams only the Bears were repeat entrants into the top ten. Both the Ravens and Eagles finished in the bottom third of the league in 2023.

So there is a good chance we see injury luck regression from some serious contenders next season. Ravens, Eagles and Commies.

Looks like it will be the 49ers vs Bills dream Super Bowl after all!

Sats for all, GR

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40 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 14h

It seems pretty obvious then that teams should trade their healthy players for guys who are coming off injuries.

69 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby OP 14h

I don't know about that. Some guys are prone to injuries. It just seems overall health of a team is greatly impacted by luck. In some cases maybe it is a cascade effect. CMC gets hurt that means Mason has to carry the ball more than usual and he gets hurt. Deebo has to do things he hasn't done in years and he gets hurt. The OLine has to pass block more, instead of 50/50 run/pass and 3/5 get hurt. Greenlaw and Hufunga are out so guys who aren't run stuffers like them have to play roles they aren't accustomed to and get hurt.

I do think maybe the way the Eagles rotate guys on D and how resilient their OLine seems to be might allow them to not totally get decimated by injuries this year but I would still bet on regression.

50 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 14h

That wasn’t a real suggestion, but I like your point. It reminds me of how people often get compensation injuries, while trying to adjust to an initial injury.

42 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby OP 13h

I wonder how these teams will integrate AI into their medical practices, strength and conditioning, rehab etc.

40 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 13h

For player safety, the league should probably require teams to make their data available for AI training.

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 11h

I have a thought experiment surrounding player development/conditioning and AI. Maybe I will post it tomorrow and we will see what stackers have to say and we can add to the pod lineup.

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50 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 14h

One of my least favorite things about following sports is how much the outcomes are determined by injuries.

30 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 14h

Part of the game. Especially in football. Teams need to have depth, good coaching and hope for a bit of injury luck.