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17 sats \ 0 replies \ @halalmoney 11 Apr \ parent \ on: Bob Murphy on Tariffs and the Triffin Dilemma econ
Hilarious and informative! 🤣🫡
Then: Bitcoin is a speculative bubble. Avoid. I am concerned for you.
Now: Don’t self-custody your Bitcoin. I am concerned for you.
Nice share. Thanks.
‘The AI bubble wobbles more precariously by the day. Some bubbles, like that of the dot-com crash, end up being positive in the long run, despite the short-term economic pain of it bursting. But some, like the 2008 housing bubble, leave permanent scars on the economy and can knock an entire industry off its growth trajectory for years. To date, the U.S. housing industry has not recovered to pre-2008 growth trend lines, a major contributor to the housing crisis gripping the U.S. That is the fire that the tech industry is playing with today.’
It’s amazing to me that someone wrote such a long article about this.
I quite liked this bit though:
“What Apple showed regarding the upcoming “personalized Siri” at WWDC was not a demo. It was a concept video. Concept videos are bullshit, and a sign of a company in disarray, if not crisis. The Apple that commissioned the futuristic “Knowledge Navigator” concept video in 1987 was the Apple that was on a course to near-bankruptcy a decade later. Modern Apple — the post-NeXT-reunification Apple of the last quarter century — does not publish concept videos. They only demonstrate actual working products and features.“
Wow!
“The research suggests that the brain doesn't simply process one word at a time, but rather maintains a complex, multi-layered representation of information throughout the language production process. This understanding could potentially inform the development of more sophisticated AI language models and enhance our ability to create brain-computer interfaces for communication assistance.”
Create a compelling reason to remove cash from banks > bank runs lead to an economic crisis > roll out the Euro CBDC as a ‘solution’.
Corporate miners should move to where the puck’s going to be (halving of block subsidies) and premise their operations on stranded energy.
“This newly proposed dark matter candidate would not only be lighter than existing hypothetical suspects, but it would also be self-annihilating. This means that when two particles of dark matter meet, they destroy each other and create a negatively charged electron and its positively charged equivalent, a positron.
This process and the flood of electrons and positrons would provide the energy needed to strip electrons away from neutral atoms, a process called ionization, in dense gas in the center of the Milky Way. That could explain why there is so much ionized gas in the central region called the Central Molecular Zone (CMZ).”
Fascinating!
“Establishing trust in this environment requires something more substantial than our solemn word that THIS time, unlike the previous million times in the training data, we're TOTALLY going to honor our commitment. Game theory offers insight here: for cooperation to emerge in environments swimming with deception, there needs to be some reliable signal that separates honest actors from the hordes of promise-breakers. "Cheap talk"—promises that cost nothing to make and nothing to break—fails this requirement.
What works instead is costly signaling—actions that would be irrational for dishonest actors to mimic. When someone actually bleeds a little to demonstrate trustworthiness, they create what game theorists call a "separating equilibrium"—a signal that only those who genuinely intend to cooperate would find worth making. A classic example is companies offering money-back guarantees that would be financially devastating if their products were actually low quality—only firms confident in their products can afford such policies.”
A summary via NotebookLM:
US executive order establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
The guests analyze the order's details, highlighting the distinction between Bitcoin and other digital assets, and the directive for budget-neutral acquisition methods. They express significant bullishness on this development, viewing it as a major shift in US policy and a potential catalyst for global adoption. The conversation explores possible acquisition strategies, including leveraging existing government assets and the potential role of "bit bonds." Concerns about the impact on Bitcoin development incentives and the nature oA recent podcast episode features discussions about the implications of a newf the reserve's holdings are also considered. Ultimately, the participants emphasize the significance of this move as a geopolitical signal and the continued importance of individual agency within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
An interesting article!
“ We now have a capital city that is organized on behalf of one party and in opposition to the other. The bureaucrats there understand a basic point: it is not what is decided that counts, but rather who gets to decide it. “
Thanks for this post.
I agree there’s little appetite for European boots on the battlefield. But, if only to boost Europe’s weak economy, perhaps the globalists will push for a tech-heavy military industrialisation: more drones, less tanks. More lasers from the sky, less troops on the ground.
Of course, how this will be paid for without a bond market revolt is the elephant in the room.
A disturbing read. Fewer people being born because of the cost of housing.
“One report estimated that rises in the cost of UK housing between 1996 and 2014 may have led to 157,000 fewer children being born in that period alone.”
If only there was a way to fix this….
“Some kind of creative, below-the-radar solution that turns this zero-sum game into a positive-sum one is likely to have a better chance. In a tug of war, it’s often surprising how far you can go if you tug the rope sideways.”
The evil genius of it all is that once you become a home owner your incentives align with the status quo.