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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 7h \ parent \ on: Trumps comments on Truth Social econ
Trumps tariffs will hit the less well off most- low income earners spend most of their income on consumption which is more affected by the tariffs and the 20-30% consumer goods inflation pump they will deliver.
That inflation in turn devalues the USD and reduces the relative government debt burden.
Trump is using tariffs to make low income US citizens pay for the tax cuts he is planning to give to himself and his wealthy fat cat sponsors...and to delay the collapse of the USD by reducing the US govt debt servicing burden by boosting government revenue via tariff revenue.
100% agree that the EU puts up a lot of trade barriers- especially in agricultural products and other areas...and they certainly do not serve to maximise the EUs economic performance but may in some cases be driven by strong lobby groups and cultural values which may or may not argue that considerations other than maximising trade are also valid.
Many country impose trade barriers around agriculture to enable/preserve self sufficiency in food production and to preserve traditional farming cultures- eg India, China and Japan.
Do not however see climate change science as a scam - the overwhelming scientific consensus is that human activity is changing the climate and that caution and preventative action is urgently justified.
The US has ditched the Paris agreement and now joins sociopath rogue states Iraq Iran Turkey Libya Angola Sudan Yemen and Eritrea as a non signatory - a nation saying screw you to the rest of the world, environmental stability and common sense.
Now hes done it again with his irrational trade obstructing and unjustified tariffs too.
Whether he is harming the rest of the world as much as the US itself is debatable but what is certain is the USA is increasingly an object of pity and horror.
World trade is already centred upon China.
China pays the best price for most commodities and sells manufactured goods at the best price.
Thus most, if not all, nations need to trade with China or suffer economic disadvantage.
The value of US Treasury bonds is presumed upon the liquidity of USD financial markets, the universal acceptance of USD and the credibility of the US government honouring the debt obligation those bonds are.
It is no secret that the US government has been operating a chronic deficit for decades and consuming more than it produces - this enabled by the global reserve currency status of the USD enabled by the hegemony of the SWIFT trade payments network. The viability of this continuing is highly questionable and increasingly in doubt- this is part of the reasoning given by Trump for his imposition of global tariffs.
In current world circumstance if the US and its Treasury bonds were to default there would be massive dislocation and losses on financial markets, but trade in the goods people need and want would continue and be denominated in different currencies as is already increasingly the case.
The USD based financial markets could well fall apart leaving huge disruption and wealth redistribution- but actual trade in commodities and manufactured goods would not cease.
It would shift substantially from current patterns and protocols to new patterns and protocols.
The US era of empire would be over.
Undoubtedly there are problems within the operation of the state, but without a state mechanism would things be better? I suggest definitely not.
Has a free market economy ever existed in a pure form ever?
Again I would suggest not ,at least to any degree of complexity or sophistication - the inherent contradiction in the concept of free markets is that people organise into groups in order to advance their security, property 'rights' and access to resources and this organised group structure (called government) inevitably intervenes in the operation of markets- sometimes in good ways, sometimes in less desirable ways, but via the mechanism of government markets are inevitably affected, and the presence of government is more or less a prerequisite to any degree of economic functioning beyond the most simple form.
Adam Smith also recognised the logic and equity of taxing the rich proportionately more than the poor.
And the repetitive and damaging tendency of merchants to club together to distort markets and raise prices.
Who is to prevent market manipulation and price fixing except the nation state?
Without good government, funded with taxes free markets do not function.
There has never been a prosperous nation or people in the absence of good government.
Good government is essential to both regulate markets internally, preventing rentseeking and cartel price fixing and to protect and preserve the best interests of the nation versus the constant preying ambitions of external entities- primarily other nations and their corporates.
It would be fascinating to try this.
If Bitcoin was in place as the currency it would perhaps impose the budgetary discipline required to prevent people voting themselves unsustainable levels of government expenditure.
Currently the Swiss system of government seems perhaps the closest to true democracy anywhere in practice.
Hear hear Dave.
My 2 litre 1988 Hilux is still road legal- just spend some serious coin on rust cutting to keep it that way- have added a 2.4litre 2002 LWB Hiace to the fleet. Great for travel as its a home away from home.
More modern Toyotas have too much power capacity for my liking- here in NZ they compete with Fords Ranger utes in a race for speed and power I don't want to be part of.
Both my Toyotas run on LPG - sweeter and gentler on the engine than petrol - hoping to get 500000km out of them both - if I last long enough to see it!
To what extend do you estimate the funds allocated to retirement funds are held in assets whose values are sustained/inflated by serial fiat debt leverage?
Fiat money since 1971 has created a financial system where consumers and wealth funds/assets (equities and property) are mired in debt.
If that USD denominated fiat debt supporting retirement savings becomes insolvent then there is an almighty crash ahead.
The accumulated legacy of decades of reserve currency status dependency- being maxed out to the hilt are about to come up against the brick wall of insolvency and penury.
Trumps tariffs will adversely impact this demographic while Trump uses the income from the tariffs to fund tax cuts for his uber wealthy sponsors.
Welcome to Idiocracy economic mismanagement Trump style.
The Euro CBDC dovetails into Chinas already operational CBDC Yuan and Chinas trade payments protocol mBridge network which was recently joined by Saudi Arabia.
Trumps trade tariffs push other major trading nations closer into Chinas trade vortex and Chinas ambitions to advance its alternative/s to the USD/SWIFT trade payments hegemony.
Post GFC the IMF invited China to join its exclusive club of reserve currency board members because Chinas massive trade surpluses were significant in recovering from the GFC.
Post tariffs as USA retreats into protectionism and isolation the EU and China are likely to become even more interdependent and less reliant upon the USD and US hegemony.
You assume they are referring to 'garbage time' as meaning a Chinese loss is inevitable.
They might see it conversely as China having already won the trade war and defeat of the wests global hegemony as being a foregone conclusion!
Trumps global tariff war is most likely to result in other countries to be even more reliant upon trade with China as China is already demonstrably providing the most attractive trade offering in terms of manufactured goods and commodities.
And then there's shipping and logistics...already overwhelmingly dominated by China.
Rare earths. Won.
AI, robotics, biotech, nanotech, solar, wind, hydro and nuclear energy technology, 5G and other post industrial era strategic technologies where China increasingly leads the west or is catching up.
mBridge and other Chinese digital trade payment protocol alternatives to USD SWIFT are already operational and could undermine US financial system hegemony and reserve currency status, if US debt insolvency doesn't do that first.
Fact check-
The US already restricts imports of agricultural products to protect its own domestic dairy sector via import quotas. New Zealand (the worlds largest dairy product exporter) has for decades sought to see the removal of those dairy product imports quotas, with no luck. Despite New Zealand imposing no quotas on any product from any country.
It is true Europe also imposes quotas (on New Zealand and other agricultural exporters) and probably more wide ranging than the US has done.
As you note the tariffs are about seeking to reduce both the US govt deficit and the chronic US goods trade deficit...at a time when the debt servicing of its $36 accumulated debt is now almost $1Trillion annually. But why is Trump also insisting upon gifting himself and wealthy corporate donors massive tax cuts at the same time?
Europe has maintained its agricultural import quotas and trade obstructions for decades, but USA is now imposing upon itself massive tariff/trade barriers with the entire world.
This will almost certainly push the rest of the world closer together, especially into the arms of China which already offers the most powerful and attractive trade opportunities.
Alienating traditional allies in everywhere USA makes it much easier for them to consider ditching their dependence upon US institutions and protocols like the antiquated slow and expensive SWIFT trade payments network, and consider newer digital payments protocols like Chinas mBridge.
It would be helpful to be able to see a breakdown of the types of disability and the relative trends between them over time.
Perhaps also during and since Covid people may be more health conscious and have more time to investigate and get diagnoses?
When ever in history have tariffs succeeded in achieving greater prosperity for those imposing them?
'It is happening because America’s president wants to dismantle global trade. Should he succeed, the resulting turmoil would be likely to strengthen the dollar again—and for all the wrong reasons. '
China has won the trade war, and so Trump wants to dismantle global trade.
Figures-Trump is demonstrably a poor loser.
Only problem for US exceptionalists is what Trump is doing undermines US legacy hegemony and drives other nations closer together.
The subservience and complicity the US has long relied upon from Europe, Japan, Australasia and others is no longer assured. They are all pushed closer to China which already offers superior trade options and has already prepared arguably superior digital trade payments options to US petrodollar/SWIFT hegemony.
The bottom line is not explained - it is pure irrational US exceptionalism - refusing to see that the tariffs cost and weaken the US the most, while strengthening trade and common cause between all other nations, undermining the legacy advantage the US has held in international institutions and protocols.
There will now be far greater willingness, even urgency, between other trading nations to utilise alternative trade payment protocols to the USD SWIFT hegemony upon which the USD global reserve currency 'petrodollar' status relies.
China has enabled trade payments for Iran and Russia and now has mBridge digital payments protocol ready to expand with Saudi Arabia recently joining both mBridge and BRICS.
Europe is going to be much less willing to be complicit with US/SWIFT sanctions on Iran and much more willing to accept trade with China denominated in Yuan or Euros.
The viability of US debt servicing is already questionable- it is already close to a $1 Trillion annual drain on US the government finances - if Trump insists on rewarding himself and his wealthy corporate sponsors with more tax cuts, any gains in US government solvency from the tariffs will be squandered and US Treasuries will be relegated to the status of junk bonds.
Trump is trashing the USD petrodollar reserve currency trade payments hegemony and the credibility of US Treasuries.
He is opening the door for China to build upon its already operational digital trade payments gateways and Europe, Japan and others to join it.
Bitcoin could enable much greater free trade without any nation state, China or the US manipulating and bullying others with their dominance.
I hope it will happen, and it might - at least some nations are not going to want to be under US or Chinese hegemony and if enough can see that Bitcoin enables trade payments free of any hegemony it could happen.
If it doesn't and large nations continue to dominate trade payments true free trade will never be achieved- the super power/s will continue to use their size and dominance and ability to cut off trade payments access, while using their reserve currency issuance powers to distort markets.
Algorithms are mostly concentrating power and wealth into fewer hands - Bitcoin is radically different in nature in its inherent design to distribute power and liquid capital to all who choose to use it. It can free participants of debt and empower decentralised capital markets free of debt and the privileged fiat debt capital privilege wielded by the banks and governments.
The future could be determined by the smaller nations and individuals choosing to adopt Bitcoin rather than being drawn into the power vortex of the super powers.
Yes New Zealand has its advantages - if you like hiking there is a great network of back country tramping tracks and hundreds of huts anyone can use at minimal cost or free . . . you can traverse much of the country on them.
The South Island is my preference as less urban and more relaxed.