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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @zodthebarbarian 25 Oct \ on: Are real estate prices getting insane, basically everywhere? econ
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25 years from now robots will rule the earth and the few humans left wil be hiding in caves that robots do not care about. The internet to them will be smoke signals. But hey, that's just like my opinion man.
Once men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
Frank Herbert, Dune
Why is it terrifying at all?
Seeing a computer able to outperform humans at all tasks on the horizon is terrifying. No longer being the apex intelligence on this planet is terrifying. Understanding that the number one use for AGI is for military purposes is terrifying. Understanding the alignment problem is terrifying. AGI is not going to be aligned with humanity because we as a society are ill prepared to create an AGI that is humanity aligned. And even if we did it is extremely difficult to prove that what we have created is in fact humanity aligned.
This is a very doom and gloom video that I don't completely agree with but it does discuss some of the main points of Situational Awareness. Will give you a bit of my perspective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_onqn68GHY
Humans are still in the driver seat but with trends the way they are that will not last long. Militaries will use AI to plan their strategies. Drones will be controlled entirely by AI. Making complex decisions that run our world will be done by AI, not humans. Humans as thinkers are quickly being eclipsed by superior machines. Look at the list of things humans do better and you will notice how quickly that list has been shrinking. The trend is clear.
As far as doubting their abilities, i.e. the magic of it all fading away, I would just suggest you consider reading Situational Awareness. Look at the data, extrapolate out a few years and the trend is clear. Just for some low hanging fruit on the subject, just see how quickly ChatGPT has advanced.
Whether or not it has intent is irrelevant. What is your point? That it doesn't "think" like humans? I agree with you there. It doesn't think like us. And that is terrifying.
We can quibble about language but if I ask ChatGPT a question it usually gives me a well thought out answer. Whether or not they think is some philosophical question. The reality is they are quite capable at thinking well, just ask any high school student trying to complete an essay.
AGI is not pointless to discuss; see my original remarks. We are living through the era of intelligence explosion. AGI is one of the most important topics of our lives.
Once upon a time nuclear weapons didn't exist either. Scientists thought fission wasn't going to create a chain reaction. But now? We all know what happened. You say AGI doesn't exist but AGI is a line in the sand that we choose. We used to think computers wouldn't beat us in chess. We used to think computers couldn't outdo us on a math competition. There is a clear trend of computers doing anything and everything better than humans.
What is my personal response? First my personal response is to recognize reality. Look up Situational awareness PDF. In there you will see information extrapolating on why AGI is likely to show up as soon as 2027.
Is it helpful? Recognizing reality is always helpful.
What is the impact of this view of the future on the individual? Not deluding oneself into ignoring what is happening. Nuclear weapons were once fantasy but now they are everyday. Chatbots that understand and can think clearly were once fantasy. Self driving cars were once fantasy.
Dinosaurs didn't see the asteroid coming, and compared to AGI let alone ASI, we're not much smarter. Honestly what is happening is a red alert end times are coming kind of thing. And we have no way of slowing down, lest some other countries like China take the lead. The best and brightest minds in the world are working on it. The biggest companies in the world are going all in on it. And honestly when the next evolution shows up, a species far more capable than us, it'll be like neaderthals taking down a wooly mammoth using spears and planning. The wooly mammoths had no idea what they were in for.
And the most terrifying at all? AGI is not like humans. They are more like a spirit or a ghost, some entirely different entity from us. We have no reasonable expectation that summoning the demon will work out so great for us.
Consider the number one use for AGI: killing your enemy on the battlefield. Military will use AGI as the next iteration of nuclear weapons and we humans aren't going to be able to cope. It's a predicament that will cost us our entire civilization. Call my thinking here doom and gloom, buy I say it's people thinking we have a shot at survival that are living in airy fairy fantasyland. Machines will not be aligned with humans, that would be stupid. And AGI will never be stupid.
Consider how petty humans are. How divided we are. How little we are able to care about each other, let alone work towards the common good of all. Do you think AGI is going to submit to our will? Let alone agree with us? I say enjoy your last few years the way things are because we may very well be the last generations of humans and we think we are way smarter than we really are. The intelligence explosion will show quite clearly that we have become the wooly mammoth while AGI hunts us with spears, planning, and greater numbers. Once the genie is out of the botitle there will be no putting it back in. Humans have never been good at stopping progress once people realize it is possible. Now we as a species are racing towards AGI at breakneck speed blissfully unaware of how epically dangerous it is our to our civilization.
Consider how badly the U.S. did in recognizing the threat nuclear weapons posed. It took a very long time to get scientists onto a secret Manhattan project program, and to stop sharing publicly progress in nuclear physics. It's the same today with AI labs. Spies around the world could steal every secret, every AI weight, because they are locked away in San Francisco at some startup, not in a secure government facility.
IMO we are already locked into WW3, and it will be one fought primarily over who has the decisive advantage in AI. We are seeing the early signs such as NVDA being banned from selling chips in china. That was a first step towards recognizing this extinction level threat. But it is not enough and I'm afraid it may come too late.
Great post. I voted Ross Atkins btw. Derp be derpin. No brainer. We need more sports fans on Stacker News. that would be ILL. I would love seeing a bunch of lit nerds rapping about sports on here. I wish they could bet on sports here and then we could create a whole module on sn for fantasy sports that was way better than what other websites offer. That would be lit shwiggy
THE CCP CAN'T SEE ME PEE! Lol I wonder how intense the scrutiny really is over there. Sure seems like the do an awful lot of citizen monitoring. Altho the big old US of A can see me through anything that has a camera in it. Device off? MI6 has it's ways to see anyway.
Just because you have Bitcoin doesn't mean you have to use it - ppl waiting for bitcoin to be worth more, probably.
came out ahead? CAME OUT AHEAD???? What universe do you live in? No but seriously, please enlighten me how he came out ahead. Didn't Kendrick win that rap battle? what did I miss?
Hard to believe bc bitcoin is so amzing no sarcasm but...I feel like things will still be the same somehow. You know that old line, nothing ever changes.