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59 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 24 Jan \ parent \ on: 🔧 Predyx is temporarily down for maintenance. oracle
Yes that what he's doing, but in very fast automated way, issuing parallel buys of YES and NO, also sells the same way. Tries to sell the same YES/NO shares in parallel.
In a nutshell, basically we have a parallel BUY/SELL problem, and we need to fix it.
Very sophisticated attack vector, first he floods our db with tons of automated request, then tires to execute double sell. In some cases he succeeded in some cases he failed. We'll fix it no matter what. Once we get online, we'll also fix the odds of all the affected markets (La Liga, Premier League and BBL) as well.
Yes, we've been loosing our sleep every other week. At the same time, the optimist in me sees the early attacks on our beta as blessing in disguise, its preparing us for the next steps.
Transaction fee may work but it will not stop him.
There is no way a human can beat him on trades, he's using some kinda automated tool for the attack. Anyways, we've been working hard to fix this issue once and for all. It will at-least take us another day. So we may be down till tomorrow evening. Emre needs to go back to sleep, its too late for him today.
Yes, you are right. We've been investigating it since then, and have turned the site offline. Sorry for the inconvenience, we'll be back online once we fix this attack issue.
I'm personally a dark theme lover. I also have enabled dark-reader for all the sites that don't support dark theme. But I guess a few people still prefer light theme over the dark ones. I can't understand their logic.
65 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 23 Jan \ parent \ on: Why prediction markets aren’t popular oracle
yes, put my thought on the direct reply.
The explanation usually put forward by proponents is simply that these omniscient markets are unfortunate victims of broader prohibitions on gambling. If we could change these rules, we might know accurate probabilities of many more future events. We disagree. Instead, our view is that prediction markets on everything – liquid markets over a wide range of important topics – will not work without subsidies. These subsidies would be expensive, so other forms of information aggregation are usually more attractive. The scarcity of prediction markets in the world today is not a failure of regulation, but a sign that they are much less promising than many advocates, including the authors of this piece, once hoped.
The author's view is very one-sided. While, active prohibition up until Kalshi took it to the court, has negatively affected the perceptions of PM. Normies still associate it with gambling. Just like how initially Bitcoin was associated with drug and darkweb money - that perceptions still exists.
I agree with highly liquid markets over markets for everything. But, the author fails to understand that "markets on everything" has special purpose. It used to attract new users who can relate to normal stuff such as "Which song will be the Top of Spotify for this week?" Its like Costco's $1.50 hotdog. You go there for the hotdog but land-up buying more things.
Rather than regulation, our explanation for the absence of widespread prediction markets is a straightforward demand-side story: there is little natural demand for prediction market contracts, as we observe in practice.
Yes, there is demand problem as compared to gambling, because prediction market is not for everyone. The target audience of PM are the intellectuals, thinkers, economists, risk-hedgers etc. The target audience for gambling is totally opposite spectrum. Just like how the world will always have few software developers as compared to normal workers in construction, service industry etc, in the same way there only be fewer people will interested in PM. But these people who are actually interested in PM have more disposable income as compared to gamblers.
I run very large play-money markets on manifold, and so far most of the traders on my markets are people with similar profiles:
Prediction markets, unlike most asset markets, are zero-sum – in fact they are negative-sum, once you factor in platform fees. And if your money is in a prediction market, it can’t be invested in equities, or be earning interest in the bank, either.
Totally wrong! Kalshi offers interest. I think poly does that too. People are experimenting with loans on your positions, its actively being tested at manifold. Also Kalshi started marginal bets, similar to manifold's loan.
And, lastly the author fails to understand that PM are used heavily by hedgers and shorters.
A simple example:
Lets assume I run solar business. And I'm a hard-core democrat, I hate Trump. I know if Trump wins, he will cut solar subsidy, my business will incur $5M loss in the next 4 years due to Trump's policy changes.
If I'm a smart businessman, even though I hate Trump, I will bet $2.5M on Trump winning the elections at 50% odds so that I can make $5M on him winning. Thus I just reduced my loss by 50% over next 4 years.
All in all, PMs maybe not be best forecasting tool, but it has so many other benefits. Tarek founder of Kalshi truly believes that PMs are are future of financial markets, it will take over most of the margin trading from the traditional exchanges.
Need to get back to coding, I can write about it all day :)
No you didn't sound selfish. Sorry it came out that way. In fact we're thankful to everyone who is participating in the beta version. Without your help, we'll never be able to become more robust, secure and scalable. The volume and the transaction have been growing, and now we're able find new bugs, without the volume/transactions some bugs can never be found. So its all good my friend.
Will create this market now. How large do you want to bet on this one, I will add initial liquidity accordingly.
Let me know what you think:
Market: Trump criticizes Musk within a year?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly disparages Elon Musk for any reason between January 21, 2025, and January 21, 2026. Public disparagement includes, but is not limited to:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly disparages Elon Musk for any reason between January 21, 2025, and January 21, 2026. Public disparagement includes, but is not limited to:
- Belittling nicknames or personal insults.
- Statements expressing disapproval, dislike, or criticism (e.g., "I never liked him anyway").
- Comments that could reasonably be interpreted as derogatory or dismissive.
Subjectivity
While interpretation may vary, the resolution will prioritize clear and unambiguous statements. Neutral comments or mild disagreements will not qualify as disparagement.
While interpretation may vary, the resolution will prioritize clear and unambiguous statements. Neutral comments or mild disagreements will not qualify as disparagement.
Resolution Sources
Verified statements from credible media outlets, official speeches, interviews, or social media posts by Trump.
Verified statements from credible media outlets, official speeches, interviews, or social media posts by Trump.
If no such statements are made by January 21, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
No I couldn't figure out, But I think it was alby. Today the zaps have been working very good.
On Ably, I upgraded to the cloud version, paid 50k sats, but its still prompting me to finish seting-up the cloud node. @itsTomekK pls help 🙂