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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer OP 14 Aug \ parent \ on: We've not fogotten about ~Stacker_Sports Stacker_Sports
We've been thinking in the same direction. A lot of my team members wants to bet against 49ers 🤣
Ha ha!
Valid point: It's ok to buy NO shares to irritate @grayruby. LMSR allows it ;)
I guess I was just thinking there might be a way to have elements of both worlds in play, where each outcome has it's own liquidity that effects the odds rebalancing.
Yes there is a way to do it. It can be achieved by creating Single/Binary YES/NO markets for each outcome/team. And group together in the UI to disguise it as Multi-option market. That way every option/team->market has its own isolated b and N.
However this approach is very liquidity intensive( much more liquidity will be needed to create such markets).
This type of markets will only work if there is a high volume and high frequency trading, where trader's are waiting like a hawk for arbitrage opportunity between the individual teams/option market. High frequency trading automatically tends to fix the odds variance between the teams market.
Bottom line, we are not there yet, once Predyx reaches such high volume and high frequency trading levels, we will for sure start launching isolated markets like explained above.
Hope this helps.
It seems like the amount of liquidity on each individual outcome should influence how elastic its probability is. For example, the 49ers resolution should be very sticky because of how much has been wagered on both sides of it.
Yes your thinking is correct if this was a single binary (YES/NO) markets. The more wager(more shares issued on each side) it has, the less the odds move. Odds also move in relation to liquidity. Odds move in relation to N (no. of shares) and b (liquidity).
Multi or "Range" markets are very deceptive in nature. In a range market when you're placing a NO bet on 49ers, it gives you an illusion that you're trading on that outcome (49ers). But in reality, you're not even betting on that outcome, NO means you're buying YES of all option except 49ers. In a range market, NO is just a convenience YES bet on all other options. That's why the odds are not sticky as you would normally think it should be.
Pro tip: If you really want to move the odds of 49ers, you'd be better off picking top 5-10 teams that you think has better chances than 49ers and placing YES individual bets on them. Better efficiency of your capital.
Mega Pro tip: When you're buying NO of 49ers, you're actually buying YES of all 31 teams. Worse efficiency of your capital.
Hey @grayruby, the portfolio page is completely broken. And it's pointless at this time. We'll fix it soon, possibly in next 2-3 weeks.
For now, please just use it to ONLY track your position in markets - so that you know you have active trades on those markets. Only the market-page has real data as of now.
We'll fix this soon as we are working on some important performance priorities and in the middle of upgrading our LNBits server.
He seem to have some or other insider intel on South Korea's politics. No wonder why his handle says south_korea.
Hell no! 😂
They are our top users on Predyx. It makes sense to cc them as I see them as thought leaders who are helping Predyx in gaining more adoption. And they do it without any personal gains.
% from referred fees sounds like good idea. @Undisciplined mentioned that as well.
For new users (referred or not), just launch a promotional offer like 'hey user you'll recieve x sats if you complete x trades + waggered x amount of Sats + after a fix period of time.
For the user retention, we'll have something similar to manifold's daily streak - where users gets reward for using Predyx everyday and the reward keeps doubling for every additional days of streak. If they break the streak, the reward resets to zero they have to start over again.
Thanks for the kind words and you're right - a few bad actors ruin it for everyone. Not to discount the fact that we did get some excellent referrals mostly from top users on SN.
Have you thought of doing something like Batch betting or Pooled/Syndicate type of betting system
Sounds very interesting, can you please explain more? Like parimutuel betting?
Yeah totally unnecessary headache.
I have personally experienced this first hand, I've lived in highly corrupt economies like India and Mexico and also lived in less corrupt economies like USA. Huge difference especially in term of fraud.
Thanks, yes I was worried too and had an internal benchmark that if 1 out of 10 was fraud it could have been acceptable(there will always be bad actors), but it skyrocketed over the last two weeks.
Yes let us brainstorm more on this. We were thinking as follows:
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Do Phone + ID verification for referrals (not sure if this is the best, but at some point we'll have to introduce KYC if we want to operate as regulated Prediction Market in USA.)
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Put a spend limit. The referred user must spend 100k sats on markets and must hold it in the markets for more than 10 days.