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How will the housing market correction look?
1428 sats \ 10 comments \ @unschooled 7 Jun econ
Seems obvious the housing market is a ticking time bomb.
How badly is this thing set to go off?
Looks like after the war there was a similarly rapid increase in cost and this didn't course-correct very much. So this time do you think it will look more like 2008 or post-war?
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200 sats \ 0 replies \ @Scoresby 7 Jun
Here's a chart of yearly new housing starts and annual population growth.
The US wasn't building very many houses for a number of years after the GFC. Now we are getting back to "normal" numbers. I'm not sure that a real crash is coming. feels like there should be a crash because interest rates and crazy high home prices, but people gotta live somewhere...
Data is from St Louis Fed, and the weird spike in the population growth line in 2000 is because of a change in how they did the census.
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51 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 7 Jun
Terrible. Disastrous.
...or just like nothing, with above-average CPO outstripping housing for years and years and years
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121 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 7 Jun
I think they'll be able to prop it up a bit longer by cutting interest rates, but it's going to crash pretty hard. That's going to happen as the Boomers and their surviving family members start trying to unload their many many properties.
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42 sats \ 2 replies \ @unschooled OP 7 Jun
prop it up a bit longer by cutting interest rates, but it's going to crash pretty hard.
That, and a loose immigration policy (where I am). Is "people inflation" too crude a term?
I've seen many more houses come onto the market and sit in the last 6-9 months, and it hasn't really moved the needle.
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55 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 7 Jun
Yes, I saw an article recently about how 70% of listed homes have become "stale".
Even with high immigration, there will be a crash, because they won't have the financial means to sustain these prices.
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63 sats \ 0 replies \ @unschooled OP 7 Jun
Every once in a while I see something that might work for us, but I repeat to myself, "make them pay," in a villainous voice, how I imagine @DarthCoin would say it.
My landlord has no idea how much he's helped me stack.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 7 Jun
Hard to hold down interest rates when you have to swell $7T USTs before Christmas.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @cristaiji 7 Jun
There's a lot of what look like poorly built new builds going up in my area of the UK.
Building companies have been cashing in cramming as many new houses as they can into plots.
If the market crashes in the UK I'm wondering what will happen with all the new housing stock. I suspect much of it will be worthless compared to older properties that are not on pokey little estates.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Solomonsatoshi 7 Jun
Real estate will stagnate for many years. It boomed from the late 1980s until about 2022 because the price of money was in steady decline and because 1980s neoliberal deregulation of banks enabled them to funnel vast quantities of debt into non productive speculative purposes- mostly real estate. The neoliberal crony capitalist FIRE economy has run out of fuel and with the decline of western hegemony and the rise of China its all down hill from here. #999887
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @unschooled OP 7 Jun
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