• Real GDP growth in the U.S. changed by >-0.3% in Q1 2025, the first decline since Q1 2022.
• The annualized nature of the figure means that if 2025's remaining three quarters are like this one economically, U.S. real GDP would decline by -0.3% this year.
• A significant increase in imports (likely from businesses front-running Trump's tariffs) led to the decline in GDP. Imports are counted against GDP growth, as they represent spending on foreign rather than domestic production.
• A slight reduction in government spending contributed to the GDP decline, potentially caused by government contract cuts by the Department of Government Efficiency.