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I feel like I've posted a half-dozen of these articles in recent months. The journo intelligentsia (#890832) really is coordinating an ideological push of sorts.
But The Economist brought out the big guns (#921437) for a change:
Mr. Rogoff, widely known in the finance/money/econ world as the (co)author of This Time is Different and The Curse of Cash is neither a friend of bitcoin nor, it would seem, the dollar.
It’s what you think you know that ain’t so. Nothing could better describe the numb-skulled thinking behind the havoc that President Donald Trump and his trade Rasputin, Peter Navarro, have wrought on the global economy. Among the likely casualties will be the supreme status of the dollar.
Uh-hu, it's not the sanctions regime, the waning military and economic hegemony (though, there's no competitor... #972101), the FX runaway among foreign central banks and gold's vicious appreciation... it's Mr. Trump's tariffs.

I don't know, man.

The biggest challenges to dollar dominance come from within, including America’s unsustainable debt trajectory. It is already under strain from the inevitable ending of a period of very low long-term real interest rates
Truth... but then dude goes
Although the greenback will almost certainly remain the world’s dominant currency for at least a couple more decades, it will probably fall several notches.
If that's the case, WHY ARE WE TALKING?!
At least here he's overly optimistic (for the rivaling currencies) and incredibly pessimistic (for bitcoin)
Expect the yuan and the euro to encroach on the dollar in the legal economy. Cryptocurrencies will do the same in the underground economy, which is roughly a fifth of global GDP
even so, I'll take it... 20% of GDP running on BTC (and, perhaps) shitcoins? Fuck is that success if I ever saw some. ("The dollar has beaten back one challenger after another, from the Soviet Union to Japan to Europe, and now perhaps China and crypto.")
THIS bit, I very much liked (#972831)
Don’t think, though, that Fed independence would have been entirely secure under progressives, who want the Fed to focus more on the environment, inequality and social justice, and ultimately to create a central-bank digital currency to suck money out of the private banking system and redirect credit towards government-favoured sectors.

"Mr Trump did not start the dollar’s decline, but he is likely to prove a powerful accelerant"

I guess the future will tell!

non-paywalled here: https://archive.md/UDgk8
7 sats \ 1 reply \ @Mishawaka 2h
Trust me, Ro (goff)
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Ro, go-off!
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Well, if you look at the alternatives they don't look so hot either. I doubt the Chinese Yuan is anywhere close to becoming the currency of global trade since no one can trust Chinese data or Chinese banks. And the Euro? Eh, color me skeptical... this is a continent that shits its pants over Russia without big-daddy America's guns to back it up.
Bitcoin it is, I suppose!
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China is a prison; Europe a museum -- Larry Summers.
The dollar is the least dirty shirt... but somehow it's still dying, but according to the establishment/Rogoff in this case, not supplanted by bitcoin? I can't square that
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Yeah, I think @SimpleStacker is right. I will say this. The dollar will die, gradually and then suddenly.
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Much as Bitcoin may be an exit/safe haven it is not going to be used for trade payments between major power blocs. Bitcoin has already been 90% KYCed, taxed, tracked and traced and defined as a speculative commodity plaything- not a p2p payments protocol. In practical terms almost everyone using it as a MoE even in 'liberal western democracies' is breaking the law by failing to report each and every zap and account for capital gains! Bitcoin has already been outfoxed by the sly legacy fiat operators. They preserve their MoE hegemony with cunning and determination- so much so you do not even see it!
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I know people are really focused on the tariffs (I have been too), because that's the biggest qualitative change in economic policy trends, but it seems like a relatively minor factor in dollar dominance.
Aren't the promised tax cuts and deregulation potentially much bigger factors?
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same... and I recall a bunch of smart-sounding folk saying tariffs would be bullish for the dollar because blah-blah-blah. Oops
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I've heard a bunch of confused-sounding people make that case, but not many smart-sounding ones.
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You don't understand that US chronic trade and fiscal deficits undermine the USD?
You don't understand that the tariffs would both reduce US trade and fiscal deficits?
The tariffs are an obvious if very crude short term defense of the USD. They do not however address the deeper structural decline of US competitiveness vs China.
The basis of the Petrodollar is its domination as the currency of international trade settlement via SWIFT.
Chinas mBridge directly and deliberately challenges that hegemony.
USD faces a direct challenge from China, the largest strongest trading economy and the trends are all in Chinas favour. China has won the trade war.
BRICS including the Saudis are signed up to mBridge and the transition will be swift.
Why did US controlled BIS end its patronage of the mBridge protocol?
Why has Trump directly and repeatedly threatened all BRICS members with 100% tariffs should any of them dare to use an alternative to USD for trade payments?
Because Trump knows what is at stake. He knows about mBridge. He is rightly scared. Loss of USD trade payments hegemony would leave USA rapidly insolvent.
Trade payments and trade and fiscal balances are what ultimately determine the strength of currencies- and USA has been losing on the latter two for 7 decades, and now only clings to the first which is an outdated legacy mechanism based on the antiquated, slow, costly and inefficient analogue SWIFT protocol.
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The dollar’s decline didn’t begin with Trump—and it won’t end with him either. Empires rot from the inside long before the collapse is seen.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @javier 10h
Right, it started in 2008.
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or in 71 with the Nixon shock
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28 sats \ 1 reply \ @geeknik 21h
Rogoff misses the plot: collapse is the correction.
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well put
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What will the next american dillar destiny
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13 sats \ 4 replies \ @Car 22h
I think USD as we know it now will collapse, sooner rather than later, two decades seems unlikely. Bitcoin is already acting as a parallel monetary system. While not forcibly replacing the dollar, it’s at least an “exit ramp.” It’s becoming increasingly more clearer now for some. Individuals are choosing into a new unit of account, 1sat=1sat. Bitcoin lets you opt in now—at whatever exchange rate the market says. Satoshi was a genius for having the foresight to seeing how this could play out. Never been more bullish.
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Car brings the thuuuunder. What a rallying cry <3
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Lets all IGNORE the largest trading economy that all nations must now trade with or suffer significant economic disadvantage. Its not USA. China has already built the digital trade payments protocol to replace SWIFT. Trump has already threatened BRICS that if they use it they will be sanctioned. Trump is a joke- a clown, an Emperor with no clothes, increasingly his threats are ignored by those they are hurled at.
USA cannot survive 6 months without Chinese supply chains. Everyone knows this.
Much as Bitcoin may be an exit/safe haven it is not going to be used for trade payments between major power blocs. Bitcoin has already been 90% KYCed, taxed, tracked and traced and defined as a speculative commodity plaything- not a p2p payments protocol. In practical terms almost everyone using it as a MoE even in 'liberal western democracies' is breaking the law by failing to report each and every zap and account for capital gains! Bitcoin has already been outfoxed by the sly legacy fiat operators. They preserve their MoE hegemony with cunning and determination- so much so you do not even see it! The nation states will keep the power of MoE to themselves. Don't mention mBridge, its not the done thing in hopium drenched Libertarians circle jerking silos...
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Car 18h
you sound like a statist, good luck with holding usd till the collapse
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lol I do not hold any USD. Not one dime. Most of my liquid savings are in sats. But I simply recognise the very sly way the fiat operators have very successfully obstructed Bitcoin MoE use. I dont like it, but I do recognise it. Do you? Most Bitcoiners seem to argue its just a passing phase- I do not see why the fiat operators would obstruct Bitcoin so cleverly to then remove such obstruction...knowing MoE hegemony is the basis of their monetary power.
Speculative commodity playthings, in contrast come and go and do not directly threaten fiat hegemony. Bitcoin has become a KYCed, taxed, and tracked and traced plaything for ETF funds and corporate Treasuries- as such it is not a threat to fiat operators.
The only way this comprehensive obstruction might be removed would be if removal was demanded very loudly but as most Bitcoiners repeatedly deny there is any obstruction that's very unlikely!
BTW as far as the state goes, yes the nation state is a major factor in the wealth of nations- I have yet to see anyone enjoy wealth and security without the protection and security of the nation state being a major factor. To deny the major role government plays in the economy seems odd and misguided.
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Too much stories for the dollar 🧑‍🍼
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European govs are doing the worst to keep their fiat increasing over the past couple years making african countries have to recalculate the investement into excahnging value for currencey under the flag of Euro as that did more harm than good to other countries.
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If the end of dollar dominance bring a crisis of trust, then any private, non political actor would be a moron to trust the PBoC, ECB or the BoE more than the Federal reserve.
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The tariffs are primarily designed to defend the dollar by reducing the chronic trade and fiscal deficits.
It is a short term measure signalling a desperate situation as US empire is in terminal decline and its population are largely in denial.
mBridge is now operational and the Saudis are invoicing oil exports in Yuan.
The USD will decline very swiftly - China will in fact be seeking to manage the dollars decline to minimise collateral damage.
Yes there will be a role for 'crypto' as the US/west declines - it looks like Trump seeks to enable crypto in a similar manner to how Britain managed its decline.
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