To the first point, markets incorporate vastly more information than anyone is aware of. We don't know all of the relevant realized outcomes that investors are reacting too, but there's way more than just what's in the news.

To the second point, I would first want to know if the variance in that strategy is the same. If it's greater, then I'd submit risk aversion might be part of the answer. There are more factors going into prices than just expected value.

Very good, excellent, high-level objections. Esp that Chiller critique I know him and Fama went back and forth over, but I cant remember who "won" and what were the touching points. Limits to arbitrage, for sure

Markets are just dominated by AI machines that continuously move the price very effectively to whatever price their owners want according to their insider information from politicians and other influential sources.