The German Bundesbank holds the second largest gold reserve in the world after the USA (8,100 tons(!!)) with 3.37 tons worth 184 billion euros. Commodity giant Russia has also recognized that money is a form of transformational energy and has de-dollarized its NB balance sheet and is relying on real money, gold, to stabilize the ruble. The slide away from the petrodollar is accelerating as the realization matures in the economic periphery that the dependence of local bond markets on the Fed's whim implies significant blackmail potential. Thus, central banks are making a nasty edict about their own product with their growing shift away from fiat money as a reserve. Once the realization matures that Bitcoin harmoniously cures gold's shortcomings (storage, transport, confiscability and divisibility), we will see the advent of a new monetary system.
2 sats \ 10 replies \ @inevitable 20 Nov 2022
This is true, however the timeline for the bitcoin standard seems to me 50-100 years from now, unfortunately. Unless next world war - it could make it happen sooner. Or add some more decades.
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3 sats \ 4 replies \ @Hermit 21 Nov 2022
I don't know, look the internet in 30 years. From having to plug a modem to the line, to having it in our pockets 24/7.
One difference is that now Bitcoin has the internet! Look where we are now after basically 10 year of Bitcoin. I would say 20-30 more years tops. As your name indicates... Inevitable
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1 sat \ 3 replies \ @inevitable 21 Nov 2022
Let's hope you're right. I don't doubt that it's inevitable, but I wish I knew when it will happen. I entered bitcoin to get rich quick, then I converted to get rich in couple years, now I'm at protect the fruits of my labour so the next generations can benefit from it… and be happy in the process. If you'd ask me if I preferred to see the hyperbitcoinisation before I die or to avoid a war, I would definitely choose avoiding a war. Will the U.S. give up the dollar hegemony without a war? Maybe, but not soon. As I said below – I think it would take more than one generation of politicians to retire. Let's work to make the bitcoin standard happen as soon as possible, but I'm at peace with not really benefiting from it financially in my lifetime.
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1 sat \ 1 reply \ @Hermit 21 Nov 2022
I don't think it needs a war for adoption, and it can exist next to the dollar for a long period of time. When companies realized they can save 3% to Visa, they will start offering it as a payment option giving you discounts for your next purchase, and people will start using it for the discount and then realize that is more convinent
See McDonald's in Lugano, or the biggest grocery company in South Africa. And the lightning network it's just a 3 years old infant. Let it grow 3 more years,.and it will become a superior system. Companies are not going to use horses transportation when they can use trucks.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 21 Nov 2022
I see it very similarly to your point - I have very high hopes for the Lightning network, which will certainly revolutionize the banking landscape. To date, we can't even gauge its true potential.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 21 Nov 2022
The problem is that this very market awakens the tendency in us to reinterpret it into a get ritch sceme. But you are right, if you now lower your time preference accordingly. In any case, it will be a difficult and conflicting process ahead.
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @TomK OP 20 Nov 2022
Lets see. I think the Fiat system is in bigger trouble than MSM and politicians let us know. The next sovereign debt crisis will hit the entire globe like a sledgehammer. Lots of people, companies and maybe CBs and treasuries could come to the conclusion that its necessary to diversify and save a part of the reserves in the world's best money...
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2 sats \ 3 replies \ @inevitable 20 Nov 2022
I hope you are right. Saylor here makes some very good points, though: https://fountain.fm/episode/9124366838 - it's not that long (for Saylor), but tl;dr the nation states still have lots of incentives and power to defend their fiat currencies for long time. It requires at least one, but I think at least two generations of politicians to retire before there will be enough political will. And from the history we can learn that people move to the new money only when the old collapses completely. But hyperinflation events do not count, because the nation states are necromancers and keep reviving their dead fiat currencies (Argentina for instance is one of the more skillful).
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 20 Nov 2022
You're right, it will take time. But take Argentina for example. The continuing failing of their currency thrived btc-adoption indeed. Claro, they dont settle their monetary politics on btc (yet) but but but...
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2 sats \ 1 reply \ @inevitable 20 Nov 2022
The slight hope in me comes from the fact that these days everything happens faster and faster, so maybe one, not two generations :)
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2 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 20 Nov 2022
Look at the pace of horrible events happening: 2001 the dot.com bubble... 2008 the GFC... now global sovereign debt chaos in the bond markets - and this is really THE bug one, an economic and political game changer if they have to debase fiat to survive. Look at the gold chart. It skyrocketed when they debased currencies to reset the credit cycle.
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2 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 20 Nov 2022
I had no idea that Germany held that much gold. Has it been steadily accumulating over the years, or is this a recent move?
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2 sats \ 1 reply \ @inevitable 20 Nov 2022
First part of this article sheds some light on it: https://www.ft.com/content/4edf00ee-a43c-11e7-8d56-98a09be71849
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 20 Nov 2022
Thanks. Interesting views behind the curtain...
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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Taranis 20 Nov 2022
i thought we were separating the money from the state. do we need the state to help us?
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1 sat \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 20 Nov 2022
In my opinion we dont need the state to flourish. You're right: he is the biggest possible manipulator, obstacle and rent seeker. But as Bitcoin is permissionless and open to everybody - how could You possibly avoid state actors interacting? For example in the mining of BTC or putting it in the treasury? I have no idea what outcome this will have. Its game theory in action.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Taranis 20 Nov 2022
right. bitcoin is for enemies too. i don't necessarily see the state as an obstacle though, more of a small nuance, and i don't think they're relevant.
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1 sat \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 20 Nov 2022
Think You´re right there, too. Personally, I use the bear market to learn about adaption, development on 2nd an 3rd layers above the BTC-Blockchain. That gives me more than hope - there´s a lot of game-changing stuff cuming arount these days that will prosper and disrupt a lot of industries in the next cycle.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 20 Nov 2022
I think thats the rest thats still there after the introduction of the euro-system. The ECB is trying to suck-in all the gold reserves of their member banks. They will feel the pain from their bad commie-policies over the last years soon.
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