I get Doug Casey's regular emails - there's lots of ads, but often he has an interesting, clear-headed take on the state of the world.

Here's his thoughts about Milei and Argentina.

International Man: Javier Milei, the world's first anarcho-capitalist head of State, is nearing the halfway point of his first term.

What's your assessment so far?

Doug Casey: His election was something of world historic importance. Never before has anybody been elected on a platform of abolishing the State and turning the country into a capitalist haven. He proved that when things become corrupt enough, a majority of voters can, against all odds, willingly break their own rice bowls. And do it without violence.

He's fired 50,000 employees, abolished numerous departments, radically cut red tape, and the Argentine government no longer runs a deficit. Almost equally as important, he's keeping the country on course with lots of media explaining economics. Maybe rationality will win out over envy—stranger things have happened.

Milei is doing great. But some questionable things have slipped into the mix. When he was elected, one of his central propositions was abolishing the Central Bank. That hasn't happened so far. In fact, he's no longer talking about eliminating the evil institution.

Argentina is supposed to own about 60 tonnes of gold, about 60% of which is stored in London, and 40% held domestically. Milei sent 6 tonnes of that 60 tonnes there. We don't know why. Perhaps it's being lent to collect the interest. But now, when the world's economy is on the ragged edge of collapse, it impresses me as the worst time to ship your gold abroad, perhaps never to return. No reason was given. What he should be doing is building Argentine gold reserves, keeping them in Argentina, and working towards creating a gold peso redeemable in gold at a fixed rate.

He's said that he wants to join NATO, a truly stupid and pointless desire. He supports the criminal Zelensky regime in the Ukraine. He wants to take sides in the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians. It's insane to take sides in foreign military adventures.

And people seem to have forgotten that Argentina, a bankrupt country, bought 24 used F-16s from Denmark for about $300 million, which makes no sense.

First, they serve no useful purpose. Does Argentina need an air force to patrol its ocean economic zones for theft of fish by foreign vessels? Who will it fight a war against with its obsolescent fighters (aided by no army or navy)? Does spending $300 million, which it doesn't have, on fighter airplanes and probably $100 million per year to maintain them make any sense for a bankrupt government?

If anything, Argentina should have defaulted on its debt, which was run up by past criminal regimes. Though much of that money was stolen, it's now a liability of future generations of young Argentines. But instead of defaulting on what they have, he's gone back to the IMF to borrow more. Third World countries default all the time—as Argentina has done many times before.

I understand how hard it's been for him to have accomplished what he has. Fighting Argentina's entrenched Deep State can't be fun. But the things I listed are unforced errors.

International Man: Fully lifting capital controls may be Argentina's most critical economic reform. The challenge is that when the peso floats freely, capital tends to flee, and the currency collapses.

Do you think Milei can resolve this conundrum—and what are the consequences if he succeeds or fails?

Doug Casey: I hope he hasn't lost momentum. Fully lifting capital controls is critical; it should have been the first thing he did. The cost of living in Argentina, including prices in stores and restaurants, is now comparable to the US. The Argentine central bank appears to be manipulating the currency, which is completely contrary to Austrian principles. The result will be bad.

It's true that the inflation rate has fallen from hundreds of percent per year to 2% to 3% per month. But if he had abolished the Central Bank and dollarized, it would be 0% per month, especially if he announced plans for a redeemable gold peso.

We know he understands economics. He has a deep background in Austrian economic theory. So why is he doing these things? It's a mystery. But, more important, it's a mistake.

International Man: Argentina's midterm elections later this year are widely viewed as a referendum on Milei.

What are his prospects—and what would it mean if his party performs well or poorly?

Doug Casey: To continue and hopefully accelerate the reforms he promised, he needs the Argentine Congress to change the laws. So far, he's been relying on executive decrees, like Trump in the US.

Even though he's lost some momentum, enough good things have happened to keep the natives from getting restless. I expect that he'll pick up seats in the Congress.

Corruption in Argentina has been layered in over many decades; it's deep, pervasive, and hard to get rid of. But I think the average Argentine—and particularly young Argentines—still support him. So I remain optimistic.

International Man: Argentina has traditionally served as a neutral safe haven during times of global upheaval.

How do you see Argentina navigating rising geopolitical tensions—and will it remain a viable destination for international diversification?

Doug Casey: Yes, because Argentina is at the end of the world in the southern cone of South America, far away from potential wars in Europe and the Far East.

Despite the backsliding that I mentioned for Argentina, the trend is still up. Let's compare it to the US.Trump is doing a lot of dangerous and stupid things, namely his tariff wars and saber rattling. But compare that to what would've happened if Harris had been elected. It would have been "game over." The same is true here.

I suspect Milei will win the midterms and be re-elected in two and a half years. So Argentina remains a great place for diversification. Even though the cost of living has gone up a great deal, the price of property still sells for a gigantic discount from the closest equivalents in the US.

International Man: From your perspective as a long-time expat and investor, what signals would convince you that Argentina is finally breaking its historical cycle—and worth a serious long-term bet?

Doug Casey: Major corporations capable of putting nine figures in the country—like Elon Musk's Tesla—are holding off until it's clear that things have definitively turned around. It's very hard to root out 100 years of corruption in just two or three.

For a while, it seemed that it would take an Argentine version of Chile's Pinochet to turn the place around.

The good news is that government corruption in Argentina is basically about politicians stealing for personal enrichment. These people don't want to overturn the whole basis of society, as has happened in Venezuela. It's not like some other countries in Latin America, where land is confiscated, and there's an undeclared war between the indigenes and Europeans.

In Argentina, there's so much land it's almost a liability, not an asset. The way I see it, Milei's task is to end the personal enrichment of politicians and destroy the ethos of socialism among the people. It won't be easy, even though he has economic and ethical reality on his side.

Despite my cavils about Milei's mistakes, the country is moving in the right direction for the right reasons.

I remain optimistic about Argentina. And as bad as things are in Europe, my guess is that Argentina and Uruguay will get thousands of wealthy Europeans transplanting themselves. The prospects here are vastly better than those in Europe.