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Up until 2010, precious rare earths important in the production of microchips, electronics and electric motors were almost exclusively sourced in China. In recent years, several nations have picked up production again while new players entered the market, diversifying it at least to some degree. Yet, China was still responsible for almost 70 percent of global production in 2024, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. But since many countries are wary of depending on China, especially when it comes to technology products, nations with rare earth deposits are likely to exploit them further. The U.S., however, is still shipping its rare earths to China for processing, resulting in 70 percent of U.S. rare earth imports coming from the country. Significant domestic refining capabilities have still not been developed, as issues like labor costs pose hurdles.
China also has the largest know deposits of rare earths, but Brazil, Vietnam and Russia also have a lot of (largely) untapped potential in the sector. The United States and Australia ramped up production of rare earths after 2010 and Myanmar, Thailand and most recenly Nigeria also started to mine considerable amounts. As seen in our chart, the U.S. had in the past mined and produced rare earths for military uses and re-entered the market as rare earths were getting more important as a part of the implementation of crucial technologies.
The usa needs to figure out how to process its own metals and sustain itself. Just imagine the cost of shipping alone!
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It will take at least a decade and trillions of dollar of government subsidies to ever attain self reliance. China invested heavily for 40 years to achieve the near monopoly over refining of rare earths. Now with Chinas ban on exports to military purposes the USA cannot fight a war of any size for at least a decade unless China resumes supply. Good luck with that!
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Another reason to be bearish on China
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How do you figure that? Did you even read the article? You do understand China almost completely enjoys a global monopoly on refining of rare earths?
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For now not forever
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Could be forever- will be for at least a decade- and will cost trillions in government subsidies and probably never be competitive with Chinas refiners. By refining at such low cost is how China has built global dominance because other refiners could not compete and so gave up. Good example of free markets failing and state strategy winning huge power projection potential. USA cannot fight a major war for at least a decade without Chinese support.
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China is not a free market
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Correct in some areas the government is highly involved- as it was highly involved in the development of global rare earths supply chain dominance- that gives China massive strategic advantage- it means China can say to Trumps attempt to dictate to global trading partners 'fuck you'. There is never a guaranteed free market when it comes to nation state competition- USA encouraged global free trade when it thought its benefited from it but now that China has won the trade war and enjoys trillion dollar trade surpluses USA wants to block free trade with tariffs and bullying. China anticipated that by investing is multiple strategic supply chains like rare earths and China again wins against US imperialism. Good example of free markets failing and state strategy winning huge power projection potential.
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Notice how you said dollars and not Yuan
The world will never accept the Yuan to settle international trade
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Russia and Iran already do. Saudis sell most of their oil to China and have joined mBridge and BRICS. Chinas dominance in global trade in both manufactured goods and commodities means nearly all nations must trade and do trade with China. The dollar/SWIFT is currently imposed on most nations via the legacy petrodollar regime and SWIFT- well that system is in definite decline and China is already operating a number of alternative trade payments routes which USA dare not sanction because China is at the same time holding up the IMF and legacy SWIFT system. It is a transition and China is taking its time but the transition is under way and not reversing any time soon- if ever because China simply dominates on trade and historically such dominance eventually results in dominance in terms of currency and protocols. USA is in decline- China is rising. Will that be reversed? Possible, but hard to see that it will be. There is definitely a major challenge to the US hegemony and US is now definitely on the defensive as Trumps multiple actions clearly show. Amazing how in denial of what has already happened the majority of US citizens are. The sense of entitlement is huge.