Thoughts on nation-state 51% attacks \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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319 sats \ 18 comments \ @sommerfeld 16 Nov 2022 bitcoin

I saw on my feed a clip on Andreas sharing his thoughts on 51% attacks: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagEDU/status/1592914415841873922

I have to say I'm a bit disappointed by naiveness and lack of depth. I know that he preaches to nocoiners and wants to reassure them that everything will always be fine, but if we are not honest about the real risks, what are we doing here?

1 - He mentions "Bitcoin has achieved a level of computing that no single nation state can overthrow it through computation alone."

Well, that can always change in the future. If the price goes crashes further and most big miners capitulate, it's certainly not impossible to pull off.

2- On the aftermath of a 51%, Andreas also does not take it seriously: "they would be able to doublespent once, and everyone would just join the non-attacked chain".

I don't have so much confidence on that. First, I don't think someone would gain 51% of the hashrate just to doublespend once and then turn of their rigs and stop the attack.

Secondly, taking everyone to the non-attacked chain is easier said than done. I would require a hard fork, which would be contentious for sure since we all know that the side that does nothing usually wins the fork battle. Also, unless the hard fork somehow changes the PoW algorithm, the state adversary could just keep attacking it.

I'm not saying any of the above is likely, it isn't. But it's certainly not that far fetched and it's consequences would not be something to laugh at.

Sorry for the rant. Thoughts?

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294 sats \ 4 replies \ @pillar 16 Nov 2022

Your concerns are valid, but I still think that you underestimate:

The complexity and cost of achieving 51% dominance of the hash power (think that, if the current compute power of the network is 100, an attacker needs to bring 101).
The improbability of pulling this off discreetly. I mean, getting to do this without anyone noticing along the way you are getting ready, hence providing the network time to fight back in many ways.
The power obtained by being able to double-spend.
The ability of node-runners to adapt to swift, urgent changes. See the recent LND bugs as an example of how people update fast as hell when important things happen.

228 sats \ 1 reply \ @sommerfeld OP 16 Nov 2022

The improbability of pulling this off discreetly. I mean, getting to do this without anyone noticing along the way you are getting ready, hence providing the network time to fight back in many ways.

How can we fight back? Besides outcompeting them for the hashrate?

The power obtained by being able to double-spend.

I don't believe someone would go through all the trouble and effort of a 51% and not have some profitable double spend attacks lined up and ready to go. They could rug-pull most exchanges and merchants all at once.

The ability of node-runners to adapt to swift, urgent changes. See the recent LND bugs as an example of how people update fast as hell when important things happen.

I share your optimism and hope you are right but I can never be sure that will always be the case.

115 sats \ 0 replies \ @pillar 16 Nov 2022

How can we fight back? Besides outcompeting them for the hashrate?

I genuinely believe that is enough. Furthermore, the attacking organization would also be terribly naked to violent physical attacks, since such a mining operation is not something you run in someone's basement. Add army-grade security to the operating expenses of the attack.

I don't believe someone would go through all the trouble and effort of a 51% and not have some profitable double spend attacks lined up and ready to go. They could rug-pull most exchanges and merchants all at once.

I would suggest you read on the double-spend ability of the 51% attacker. I still think you are overestimating the power it provides. Spoiler: a successful 51% attack doesn't allow you to "rug-pull" anyone if by that you mean stealing someone else's coins.

I share your optimism and hope you are right but I can never be sure that will always be the case.

It's definitely hard to be sure about complex things in the future. But I rest calm since the incentive structure promotes node runners to behave that way.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @029fab2312 17 Nov 2022

The complexity and cost of achieving 51% dominance of the hash power (think that, if the current compute power of the network is 100, an attacker needs to bring 101).

Would it be possible for a few mining pools (Foundry, F2Pool and AntPool for example) to pull off a doublespend by joining their hashrates?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @rothbardllc 16 Nov 2022

great answer!

100 sats \ 8 replies \ @rothbardllc 16 Nov 2022

For sure a legit concern, but we've all experienced the technical competence of governments. Just unrealistic to think any government, with the possible exception of China, could pull off a 51% attack.

The bigger takeaway IMHO is that there will be a time in the not-too-distant future that nation states will be competing to own bitcoin, either by:

-- Mining it themselves, by confiscating asics -- Confiscating citizen's bitcoin from custodians -- Printing money to buy on the open market

I think all of the above, at some point. Think of it this way, if you could print money for nothing and use it to buy bitcoin, wouldn't you? They can (for a little while), so they will, eventually, at the tail end of the fiat hyperinflationary collapse ("crack-up boom").

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @sommerfeld OP 16 Nov 2022

I agree with all those points and also think it's the most likely scenario.

My point was that if at some point the hash rate crashes, a nation-state might have the opportunistic sense to attack bitcoin rather than accumulate it.

0 sats \ 6 replies \ @ln_cortado 16 Nov 2022

Governments can fund private companies to do it for them. It's very naive to think "oh they're stupid so they can't pull it off"

0 sats \ 5 replies \ @rothbardllc 16 Nov 2022

Because they are so good at hiring technical contractors now?

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @sommerfeld OP 16 Nov 2022

With the right motivation/incentives, they indeed have the power to recruit the brightest minds in the world. One can even argue they already have them.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @rothbardllc 16 Nov 2022

It would take some 4D level chess to pull anything off at the nation state level, and nuanced strategic thinking and execution is just not a strong suit of governments.

Perhaps a more evolved take is they could make a bungling effort at a 51% attack that doesn't work in any meaningful way (by design) but is enough to destabilize the network -- and the price -- to the point where they could accumulate on the cheap.

However it plays out, I am personally convinced that bitcoin becomes a major geo-political strategic asset at some point and individual ownership is banned "for our protection". This is a looming battle we'll have to resist at some point.

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @ln_cortado 25 Nov 2022

I'm of the opinion that you have a very naive view of the world. The charade that elected governments play may fool you into thinking that it's full of incompetent people, but I'm pretty certain they are able to play complicated 4D level chess at the state level, at least if history is any indicator.

You keep focusing on the simple 51% attack vector, but nobody is stupid enough to attempt something as obvious. These government actors are experts at silently muting, crippling or destroying countries - what makes you think they woulnd't be able to do it to a disorganized open source project?

Whether it'll happen is a different question though -- as you identified, the game theory at the geo-political level complicates any single actor's motivations.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @rothbardllc 25 Nov 2022

I appreciate the response, and you certainly could be right.

I just have a philosophy that has served me well, which is:

"Never blame conspiracy when stupidity can adequately explain"

This sums up the government and corporate decision making in one sentence, in my experience, and I'll keep with that until proven otherwise.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ln_cortado 12 Dec 2022

I definitely agree with that quote in isolation. Not sure it applies everywhere but it is a good principle to apply in general

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15 sats \ 1 reply \ @8 16 Nov 2022

I am not technical but I have been concerned about the discrepancy between the very low price and the very high hashrate. Doesn’t make sense to me. So either a big player is acquiring through mining or something more sinister is going on.

220 sats \ 0 replies \ @BTCMiner 16 Nov 2022

Bitcoin hashrate lags price -- both up and down. Always has, and likely always will.

The lag on the way up has actually increased due to supply constraints on the ASIC chip and ASIC rig manufacturers that has now abated.

There are still many large miners able to mine today profitably (however, that may coincide with some possibly optimistic assumptions on the amortization of CapEx) so they aren't going to power down. And the marginal operators that are powering down are either liquidating their hardware to the remaining operators (who power them back up) or had rigs with a lower level of hashrate, and thus minimal impact on the hashrate.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @weatherall 17 Nov 2022

bigger problem is "hidden hand" real power BEHIND the rotting carcasses which used to be "nation-states"... the kinda forces that dabble in high magickal theatrics conducted from the bunker in new swabia , such as Kennedy , 9/11 , and everyone's favorite - Covid durr hurr ...

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Ge 16 Nov 2022

It's grown so much I do not believe a nation state attack would be successful they would hurt themselves to a high level of degree that it wouldn't be worth all the cuck bucks and resources for them u know they like their made up numbers on their papers. haha its def in the realm of possibilities however I can't see them stopping it also helps that the orange coin does not have a head to cut off unlike all the shitcoins with their ceos and board of directors lol. We are def entering the now they fight you stage why its important to get others to stop looking at the dollar price its literally the only weapon the opposition has on bitcoin because we are so addicted, and conditioned to use dollars for everyday life...