Inflation, gold, credit, dollar, debt and interest — all indicators are shouting something in common:
We are entering a new macro regime.
More protectionism, less confidence in the dollar, more search for security.
- 🚨 The new inflation does not come from demand — it comes from politics.
Fed's Christopher Waller warned that sustained tariffs could push inflation back to 5%.
The risk now is not a buoyant economy, but rather a trade war distorting global prices.
- 📈 Gold : o asset of distrust is getting expensive.
UBS has already revised its 2025 projections twice:
• January: $2,700 → $3,000
• April: $3,000 → $3,500
No one goes up a target like that for nothing.
It is the asset of those who no longer trust the traditional system.
- 🥇 And the numbers prove it: gold is hot!
Since the start of the pandemic, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 in cumulative returns.
In a world with inflationary, geopolitical and fiscal risks, metal has once again become a protagonist.
- 🏦 And guess who's buying?
Central banks are in their 20th consecutive month of net gold purchases.
In the last 3 years, they have acquired more than 3,176 tons.
It's the kind of movement that only happens when there is institutionalized fear.
- 💥 Meanwhile, the dollar melts.
The DXY index has already fallen more than 8% in 2025 — the worst start to a year since 1995.
It is a direct reflection of fiscal deterioration, the risk of tariffs and global distrust in the dollar as a reserve.
- 💳 On the other side, the American locks the card.
Consumer credit fell $810 million in February.
What is expected? A rise of US$15 billion.
It is the second drop in the last four months — and the most significant.
📉 The middle class is starting to hit the brakes.
- 📉 And what about companies? Going bankrupt again at alarming rates.
Corporate bankruptcies in the US are at their highest rate since the 2008 crisis.
And it's still only April.
The financial squeeze and slowdown are already taking their toll in the real world.
- 🌐 The world holds a quarter of America's debt.
Foreigners hold $8.51 trillion in Treasuries — about 23% of total U.S. debt.
If this capital decides to leave… the impact could be quite significant on interest rates and exchange rates.
- 🇯🇵 Even Japan, the land of negative interest rates, is changing.
The yield on 30-year Japanese bonds hit 2.84%, the highest level since 2004.
It is yet another sign that the cycle of global financial repression may be over.
- 🤯 The new cycle has already begun — and it is more volatile, more protectionist and less reliable.
The pre-2020 world is over.
Now the investor must navigate between persistent inflation, fragile currencies, protectionist governments and a system that no longer seems so solid.
The rising gold is just the symptom. The game is much bigger.