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121 sats \ 7 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 13 Apr \ on: Billionaire Investor Ray Dialo is Worried About Something Worse Than a Recession econ
USA and USD face insolvency.
Nobody trusts USTs ars being good as gold anymore.
China won the trade war now USA must fight to retain its legacy financial system hegemony upon which its viability as the primary super power now depends.
China has mBridge ready to go to replace the USD/SWIFT trade payments protocol.
Without USD/SWIFT hegemony and the rent and seigniorage it brings, the USA is broke.
China is broke as well
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Trade surpluses growing larger every year for the last 40 years reaching Trillion dollar trade Surplus last year says otherwise.
China stopped buying UST junk bonds about five years ago.
Instead they invest in real world productive and strategic assets and infrastructure.
China Development Bank now funds more global infrastructure investment globally than the World Bank.
Their tertiary level strategic infrastructure investment in CBDC based trade payments protocol mBridge - independent of USD/SWIFT hegemony - is nearing implementation stage and at that point US empire viability goes swiftly out the window.
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So what. They are still massively over leveraged. Especially the real estate market. The reaction to tariffs is proof. The world’s goods are still priced in dollars. No one would ever trust the CCP to hold the yuan in reserve.
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Really?
Let's look at the facts shall we-
Following the GFC the IMF asked China to join its board of reserve currency issuers.
It was Chinas productive economy that bailed out the collapsing global financial system from paralysis.
China became the first and only IMF reserve currency board member not to be both monetarily and militarily a tribute state to the USA - because China had already won the trade war- its productive capacity competitive advantage is second to none- while the USA ekes out the last drops of fiat USD debt funded seigniorage, solvency, debt rents and leverage it can, China has already prepared its mBridge CBDC trade payments protocol - Brazil, India, Thailand, Russia, Iran, UAE and Saudi Arabia and others are already or preparing to join it.
The petrodollar is facing its imminent demise.
There is no nation today that can deprive itself of Chinese supply chains and commodity markets without inflicting significant economic pain upon itself - certainly the USA cannot.
BTW Blackrock and other greedy/gullible western hedge funds ended up carrying the can for Evergrande bonds they bought that are now worthless -
https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/blackrock-vanguard-shareholdings-in-evergrande-plummet-by-more-than-250m-20210928
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/banking/bluebay-blackrock-ashmore-and-ubs-exposed-to-evergrande-says-morningstar
China learned a thing or two since the Opium Wars.
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Then why is gold and oil still priced in dollars on Bloomberg terminals? All the countries you mentioned don’t have robust economies. USA tricked the world into taking paper for stuff and thinking the USD is stable. That is why tether is one of the most profitable business per employee on the planet.
I’m not refuting anything you are posting but China misplayed their hand. The demographics are terrible I also read somewhere that Mississippi has a higher GDP than Shanghai. California it self has a higher GDP then most of the nations in the world.
Until people demand the Yuan and not the stuff that China makes then I can start to see the shift but the world just made China it’s sweatshop at the expense of human rights and an organic growth of the Chinese middle class. The CCP took the surpluses and didn’t empower their people on mass. Just the oligarchs and the CCP elite got to feast while the common Chinese citizen got the short end of the stick. Why most still try to come to the USA to have a chance at wealth and storing in something that isn’t stripped away by the CCP.
The world is done feasting on China‘s sweatshop and always breaking the rules. It’s a new day and China needs to come up with something or they will lose.
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By your logic, because something is as it is now, i.e. gold and oil priced in $USD, it will be that way in the future.
I don't think most westerners comprehend China's strategic perspective. Our system disincentivises strategy over tactics. It's why we can't win long wars and it is why we will not maintain economic and financial dominance.
Pride comes before the fall.
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