US announces new tariff increases for CHINA, reaching 125%, BUT DELAYS IMPLEMENTATION FOR COUNTRIES THAT DID NOT RETALIATE BY 90 DAYS! 📈
This was the biggest relief in recent times!
The “Trump put” was just triggered as the S&P 500 was on the verge of a bear market!
The American president warned hours earlier on social media: “It's a good time to buy!”
China had just raised tariffs to 84% and started dumping Treasuries.
Understand the current situation!
📉 S&P 500 was on the verge of bear market collapse 🐻
The index had already accumulated -18.6% since the peak.
Another 1.4% drop and it would officially be in a bear market.
Then Donald Trump came along, announced a pause in the implementation of tariffs and the markets exploded!
Now this is where we need to keep an eye on!
Interest rates have exploded in recent days — and that wouldn’t make sense in a recession scenario
The 10-year Treasury rose +60bps in 3 days even with signs of slowdown.
It is the highest increase since 1982.
What's wrong?
The “basis trade”: the invisible leverage that became a bomb
Hedge funds buy Treasuries in the spot market and sell the same security in the future.
It’s simple arbitrage — but operated with up to 100x leverage.
When bond prices fall sharply (yields soar), this trade implodes.
And drags the market along with it.
The déjà vu of 2020 is back — but the Fed isn’t
In 2020, the same trade collapsed.
The Fed came in buying $100 billion a day in Treasuries to save the system.
Today, funds are being forced out… and no one is there to hold them back.
🇨🇳 China has pulled the trigger on the currency war
He announced another retaliation, raising tariffs to up to 84% on US goods.
And at the same time, the US government’s biggest lender is hammering Treasuries — raising interest rates and seeking to undermine Trump’s economic narrative.
Rolling over US debt has become the big target
More than $8 trillion is due by 2026.
With yields soaring, the cost of debt rises and the fiscal situation becomes a ticking time bomb.
China knows this. And it's forcing the issue.
Jamie Dimon played it real: recession has become the baseline scenario
JP Morgan's CEO didn't mince words:
“With this trade policy, recession is the most likely path.”
But now everything could change with the step back taken by the American president.
The market was screaming collapse — and everyone was listening
• VIX above 50 (dropped to 38 in seconds)
• Fear & Greed Index at 5 (extreme fear)
• Kalshi pointed to a 69% chance of recession in 2025
It was no longer a scare. It was the market repricing the world.
Gold and Bitcoin becoming a hedge and alternative against the dollar?
The long bond ETF ($TLT) sank.
Gold was rising. Meanwhile, China and Russia are settling energy contracts in Bitcoin, according to VanEck.
It would be de-dollarization in practice.
Most impressively, Trump warned hours before: “This is a great time to buy!!!”
A perfect symbol of what is happening.
Trade War 2.0 is starting to look more like the previous one, focused on the US vs. China
In 2000, the US led world trade.
In 2024, the map has turned. China is the main partner of almost the entire planet.
American hegemony over the world has weakened — fast.
With that, the US stock market added $4 TRILLION in just 10 MINUTES! 🇺🇸