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I think it'll depend a bunch on what's getting cut.
Right now, I imagine the biggest immediate impact would be security on maritime shipping routes. Countries will get mad because the trade lanes are getting more risky/expensive. They'll probably step up their own efforts to police the high seas.
Secondarily, I imagine Israel and Taiwan will be the most impacted. They'll probably be scrambling to look for allies and defense agreements from other countries.
I think Taiwan would very quickly strike some sort of agreement with the mainland.
A friend of mine, in true economist fashion, thinks the price of American empire is probably worth it for the peaceful shipping lanes.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 9 Apr
Good points.
On average, does this cause other countries to start spending more on their military? Or does it make them go "oh, the US is spending less, therefore we should too"?
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does this cause other countries to start spending more on their military?
They will, but I think that this isn't the issue.
The issue is that the US will be saving dollars, which could be infinitely printed (at least until recently), at the cost of goodwill and influence, neither of which can be printed.
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