"ALL THE TIME," I hear the true Bitcoin maxis scream.
Sell your chairs; we are just "early" (#936442).
For investors who are rational and lucky enough to be sitting on cash or short-term bonds — Warren Buffett being the most prominent example — the prospect of further declines will have them thinking of buying, not selling. We are in a **real mess, but markets overreact to messes every time. **
Multiple expansion (PE ratios on stock valuations) have come waaay down; full circle.
But we're not done yet; there is/can be more pain to come.
Armstrong explanation:
To read this chart, you might want to have some sort of theory about why valuations have been high post-pandemic (apart from the 2022, when inflation jumped). Unhedged’s favourite theory is that fiscal policy was extraordinarily loose during most of the period, pushing money into markets. If you believe that fiscal tightening is coming (as some in the Trump administration have promised) then stocks don’t look cheap here on a PE basis. They might even be priced to give below-average long-term returns.
"Once again: stocks are not priced for high long-term returns yet."
Look at the big tech stocks (minus Nvidia and Tesla bc apparently cluttered graph, #877723):
not that bad... I guess?
Stocks are no bargain. But Trump’s tariffs may not be done with us yet, and if they are not, now is the time to think about what the bargain level might be.
CONCLUSION?
Fucking buy. ze. dip... but have a plan -- and fucking following it:
nonpaywalled: https://archive.md/DcHDo