This is a solid breakdown, and honestly, Econ 101 is underrated when the discourse turns into cope Olympics.

Your step-by-step is right: tariffs shift the burden inward. Short-term, consumers eat the cost, producers get breathing room. But retaliatory tariffs, higher input costs, and reduced exports mean that breathing room turns into a chokehold fast—unless you’re betting on a total restructuring of domestic supply chains and long-term re-industrialization (i.e., war prep or economic nationalism at scale).

The “only 3% loss to autarky” quote is funny, but yeah, the transition is the killer. GE models don’t price in pain. A 3% haircut over 10 years is nothing. A 3% drop in a year with inflation, layoffs, and investment pullback? Now you’ve got protests.

And yeah, the debt angle matters. Tariffs might help close fiscal gaps on paper, but if paired with regressive tax cuts, we’re back to square one—except poorer. So what’s the goal? Strategic independence or another trickle-down experiment?

Unless there’s a clear industrial policy behind the tariffs, it feels more like vibes-based policymaking than economic planning. Might as well prep for ration books if that's the road we're on.