If there’s one thing the crypto market loves, it’s hype. And when Donald Trump returned to the U.S. presidency in early 2025, a lot of people thought Bitcoin was going straight to the moon. But… that’s not exactly what happened. Reality hit hard, and the numbers don’t lie: BTC had its worst first quarter since 2018, dropping 8.13%, according to Underblock. And back in 2018, it was a massive crash—almost 50%! In other words, the excitement lasted about as long as a New Year's resolution at the gym.

So, why did this happen? Well, first off, the crypto market has always been a wild rollercoaster. The post-election optimism led to a short-term pump, but the truth is, the macroeconomic landscape is still full of challenges. The Federal Reserve is keeping things tight, inflation is still an issue, and regulations around crypto are making investors a little nervous. Plus, the market is more mature now, and Bitcoin isn’t the only star of the show anymore. Stablecoins, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and other assets are stealing the spotlight.

Another interesting point: Trump has never been a big fan of crypto, and even if he ends up adopting more favorable policies, it’s not going to happen overnight. Financial markets don’t move on wishful thinking (though sometimes it feels like they do). Anyone who thought a government switch alone would send BTC skyrocketing might have underestimated how complex this game really is. The global economy is packed with moving parts, and while Bitcoin is still a decentralized alternative, it’s more tied to traditional markets than ever before.

Speaking of that, remember when people called Bitcoin “digital gold” and said it was a store of value independent of traditional markets? Well, real-life data keeps proving otherwise. When stocks drop, BTC tends to follow. This first-quarter slump might have been a direct result of institutional investors shifting away from risk. At the end of the day, Bitcoin may be decentralized, but the big players moving most of the money are still Wall Street giants.

But hey, don’t panic just yet. The crypto market has always moved in cycles, and one rough patch doesn’t mean it’s all over. Bitcoin’s 2024 halving could start showing its effects later in the year, giving it a much-needed boost. Plus, regulatory shifts and further institutional adoption might help fuel a comeback.

Bottom line: Early 2025 was a cold shower for those who thought BTC would skyrocket just because Trump was back. But the game is still on. The real question is: will investors have the patience to wait for the next bull run, or will they bail out before the next rocket takes off?