1-US records $301 billion goods trade deficit in just 2 months (!) 🤯

We've never seen anything like it. Not even half of it. Companies are rushing to import before the tariffs.

It's total panic.

Understand in detail what is happening!

2-Let's first compare with “normal”:

In Trump's first trade war, the worst month had a deficit of ~US$120 billion.

Now? • Jan/25: US$ 153.3 billion • Feb/25: US$ 147.9 billion (US$ 12.4 billion above expectations)

It's the worst semester in history! 🚨

3-What's pulling this?

Explosion in imports of industrial inputs: 🛢️ Oil 🔥 Gas (LNG) 🪙 Gold 🔩 Steel

Producers are stockpiling as if a long, heavy trade war is coming.

4-Calm down, the worst is yet to come:

These numbers DO NOT INCLUDE the new car taxes: • US$240 billion/year in tariffs

From Mexico alone, the US imports almost 3 million vehicles.

Everyone is anticipating imports. General rush.

5-Impact on actions:

Tesla (100% US-assembled cars) rose +9% on news of tariffs on foreign auto industry products.

But hours later, he gave everything back. The market is directionless!

6-Alert for the automotive sector:

• 7.4 million cars were imported in 2024 • No major brand makes 100% American cars

If these tariffs last, there is no magic:

significant chances of widespread chaos in the car manufacturers (bankruptcy?!)

7-Race for physical gold:

US gold stocks up 100% year to date Price hits nominal record of US$3,100/oz Swiss exports to the US have soared.

It’s a risk of recession — and no one wants to be left without protection.

8-The investor and the consumer felt:

• Plummeting confidence • Volatility at its highest • 44% of Americans think the stock market will fall in the next 12 months

Level of pessimism seen only in 2008.

9-Emotion and investments do not mix:

We have just seen the biggest drop in stock market expectations in 2 months on record.

Neither Covid nor the 2018 trade war caused this.

–16.8 points in two months.

Does anyone dare to say what's coming?

Thread adapted from the brilliant The Kobeissi Letter and further adapted by me. https://x.com/KobeissiLetter