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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @johngalt 23 Mar \ on: What are these Sats Worth? A Thought Experiment... bitcoin
Honestly, I don’t think Saylor’s prediction is as crazy as it seems at first glance. Bitcoin has already proven to be the best-performing asset of the past decade, and if it truly becomes the foundation of a neutral global monetary system, who knows?
The real question is: Will this actually happen? If BTC truly establishes itself as "money over IP," then $13 million per unit wouldn’t be a random number but a natural consequence of mass adoption and the flight of value from traditional financial systems. Today, everyone uses the internet to find information—why not use Bitcoin to store value and transact globally? It makes sense.
But I also see the other side. This kind of growth would require a 29% annual appreciation for two decades, which is insane. Bitcoin has had exponential growth spurts before, but the bigger it gets, the harder it is to sustain that curve. Not to mention that governments might try to regulate it, other technologies could emerge, and Bitcoin’s own volatility could prevent it from being used as an everyday currency.
Now, if this does happen and Bitcoin truly moons, what does that mean for Satoshis? Well, in Saylor’s scenario, 1 satoshi would be worth 13 cents. That doesn’t sound like much, but today, 1,000 sats buy you a piece of gum, and in that hypothetical future, they could pay for a meal. The problem is: what about inflation? If the world undergoes financial collapse and traditional money gets diluted into nothing, then Bitcoin might grow massively in absolute numbers but without a real increase in purchasing power.
I do think Bitcoin has a bright future and could capture a huge share of global wealth, but setting an exact price for 2045 is just a guess. I’d rather believe that holding BTC long-term is likely a winning move, but maybe not as extreme as Saylor projects.
I tried to address some of these here...
Sorry it's a long read
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