Okay first off lets play out the scenario where the government shuts down.... a day since the courts have ordered all the mass fired people to be rehired!?!?! Like congrats you dont have a job AGAIN!
The math for this is super interesting though. Given the number of Senators from the Democratic Party that have come out against it including some who are known moderates the math will be tight. Schumer fell on the sword last night to protect those that will pivot and vote for the bill. Fetterman has been clear he will vote for it as the lesser of the two evils but otherwise 6 more have to flip.