One strategy I've used to orange pill my friends \ stacker news ~tutorials

Okay, so, to be fair, I'm not sure this is the best way to do it... but it's the way that I'm trying right now. This is a long message I shared in the group chat with some dudes I've known for 20+ years. about half the group has some exposure, but there's a guy who recently said something like:

the original chat message

BTC down 8% one of the big reasons I struggle with it. Shouldn’t it be going up on huge inflation news?

That was 2 weeks ago, and it came tied up in an unprompted a discussion about tariffs and normie-news which was something to watch. Today, I was looking at the numbers in Apple's stocks app, and I wrote up this little diddler of a response to that message.

the response

judging from how this analysis turned out, while the indexes haven't really started dumping until the last 30 days, the bitty has been headed down for about about 90 days. initially i was focused just on the last 6 months, but once i had the condition to look i kept going out to 10 years, which looks a little nuts, frankly.. and i'm guessing CAGR is going to make it kinda more insane as we go forward.

so, anyway, we're 2 weeks into noticing the dump (yay!!) but upon looking, i realized that started a bit earlier. i've included 3 indexes, plus the corn 🌽 & Strategy which are gonna be pretty tightly coupled for the next bit, due to Strategy's treasury strategy (circa August 2020). worth mentioning that the corn's recovered significantly since its recent low of 76k about 36 hours ago.

here are some numbers to look at. i'm guessing it'll be more interesting in a couple months. the news tells me the talking head expects a recession, but in my world there are 30+ strategic reserve bills [2] floating through the various states, so i'm expecting significant decoupling of the corn from the indexes.

1Week -- BTC: -3.3% MSTR: -5.35% DJIA: -2.79% SPX: -3.72% ONEQ: -4.73%

1Month -- BTC: -11.95% MSTR: -18.33% DJIA: -6.35% SPX: -7.63% ONEQ: -10.86%

3Month: -- BTC: -16:30% MSTR: -33.56% DJIA: -5.65% SPX: -7.92% ONEQ: -12.55%

6Month: -- BTC +44.07% MSTR: +99.27% DJIA: +0.82% SPX: -0.42% ONEQ: -0.88%

1Year: -- BTC +16.67% MSTR: +63.55% DJIA: +6.22% SPX: +7.67% ONEQ: +7.14%

2Year: -- BTC +276% MSTR: +1067% DJIA: +30% SPX: +45% ONEQ: +57%

5Year: -- BTC +1447% MSTR: +2241% DJIA: +79% SPX: +106% ONEQ: +124%

10Year: -- BTC +29122% MSTR: +1516% DJIA: +133% SPX: +174% ONEQ: +264%

there's a line that goes "at this point, the real risk is not having at least some exposure to bitcoin". and i guess the other way to look at it is, if you wished you had gotten some at 80k when it was at 110k... well, those were good instincts and you have a chance again (yay!) [1]

over 10 years, if china gets bigger and the US becomes less stabilized... i would expect to see a weaker dollar, but it might not pan out that way because of tariffs or dollar milkshake theory or whatever. maybe tariffs will make US stocks tank? maybe US manufacturing will take off in light of robots and tariffs and stable coins? maybe it'll be a wash because the US is gonna continue to print money & treasuries as hard as the rest of the world will allow until the USD's peer competitor emerges... hard to know.

what's a little more easy for me to wrap my head around, as the various US states adopt bitcoin treasuries [2], and Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Angola, Libya, Uganda, Zambia, Malawi, and DRC all continue to adopt it further [3], and maybe that catches on a little bit and other countries adopt even a strategy like El Salvador (buying 1 bitcoin/ day as long as they can, despite the IMF), and then i imagine seeing sustained base demand above and beyond the 1million+ coins that the ETFs have already bought up, and the nearly 500k that Strategy has taken off the table [4]... and since it's a perfectly scarce asset, we don't need to think as hard about what will go on as the miners produce only 164k bitcoin per year until 2028 and then only 82k/year until 2032 [5]... predictable monetary policy, fixed supply & elastic demand for a thing that's increasing in popularity and uses and trades 24/7/365? i think there are fundamentals here worth suspending unfamiliarity and doubt in order to understand better [1] ... but maybe the vibes don't support that reasoning.

[1] https://river.com/learn/ or maybe YOLO w/ cashapp or Robinhood

[2] bitcoinlaws.io

[3] https://www.emurgo.africa/blog/posts/10-countries-bitcoin-mining-takes-off-in-africa-powered-by-green-energy

[4] https://strategy.com

[5] 365 *24 * 60 / 10min * 3.125 = 164,250/year until about April 2028, then half that for the next 4 years

final notes.

in my response, I actually broke all the url links so that they couldn't be easily clicked, and wouldn't automatically blow up the chat with details. I wanted my friends to have to dig around a little bit, like when you give a dog that peanut butter ball thing and they have to spend hours licking it to really get the goodness... only not for hours hopefully my friends know better than that.

I'd be interested to hear what the rest of the stackers think of this strategy... maybe there's a use case for orange-pill-moments territory? somebody else feel free to do that, I don't have the sense of urgency necessary to do it well.

real final notes

last night I scored a stacker news trucker hat, and I couldn't be happier about it. thanks Koob!

242 sats \ 5 replies \ @grayruby 12 Mar

I probably would have just said "bitcoin is a hedge against monetary debasement not consumer price inflation. The effects of monetary debasement are seen over longer periods of time (US dollar has lost x% of its purchasing power over the last y number of years), while consumer prices are subject to a number of other factors like geopolitics, supply chain interruptions, weather events, supply and demand cycles. The two are connected over the long term as the money supply expands it trickles in to any and all areas of the economy but not necessarily in the short term. Global money supply has just started to tick up after a couple years of contraction as central banks tightened to try and reign in inflation but a fiat system built on high levels of debt cannot handle long periods of contracting money supply before it implodes. If you think monetary debasement is over and governments of the world are going to suddenly all be fiscally responsible and it won't cause the entire system to collapse, you probably shouldn't buy bitcoin. If you are worried about the fiat price of bitcoin dropping 25% in a month after it went up over 100% in a year, you probably shouldn't buy bitcoin. If not, you should study money and bitcoin and consider dipping your toe in while you learn."

40 sats \ 3 replies \ @itsrealfake OP 12 Mar

interesting... wonder if you actually got those extra 25sats?

71 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek 12 Mar

You can click on … next to an item and then on 'details'. The details include how many sats they received from you:

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @itsrealfake OP 12 Mar

wow cool

5 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 12 Mar

Yes, I got 17 sats and 17 cc's, which would roughly work out to 25 prior to sybil fee.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 12 Mar

I like it. My response would be shorter.

Markets are highly emotional and irrational in the short term. But in the long term it is the inverse. Look at bitcoin's market trend over the last 10 years vs anything else.

The gains are wild
It is clear that investors do not yet understand it
Bitcoin has a dedicated group of true believers with massive conviction that create a floor when the speculators get scared.

The more time I spend talking with hobbyist "investors" the more I think they don't understand markets or the price system. They have learned a bunch of slogans and bromides about "investing" but they don't get the underlying principles of markets and the price system. I mean... there's the lack of understanding bitcoin but also the gap in understanding the free market price system. They kinda go together.

15 sats \ 2 replies \ @SimpleStacker 12 Mar

What, how?

I like your 1 week, 1 month, 1 year, 10 year thing, and the saying, "The real risk is not having some."

30 sats \ 1 reply \ @itsrealfake OP 12 Mar

ran into the crew at bitcoin++ hackathon, and wound up leaving with some swag

"The real risk is not having some."

Not my line, but definitely something that's nestled its way into my skull

12 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 12 Mar

ran into the crew at bitcoin++ hackathon

I was there, too 👀