Market Prices Are Truth: What is BTC/USD Telling Us? \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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Market Prices Are Truth: What is BTC/USD Telling Us?

2909 sats \ 15 comments \ @denlillaapan 6h bitcoin

So, bitcoin is dead again, etc. (#900000, #875931)

I've never been particularly joyful about price crashing (it indicates a broken, illiquid, immature market; and the direction suggests maybe, just maybe, we were are wrong about this beanie-babies-taking-over-the-world thing). I've repeatedly said Bitcoiners being happy when price puking ("duh, bro; cheap corn; more sats for less dollars!") are idiots. Case in point: "Honey Badger Should Care: Why Bitcoin’s Price Action Does Matter"

Ok, fair enough; when I published that piece the BTC/USD exchange rate was -75% from where it is now (one-quarter). So yeah, everyone been happy since, blah-blah-blah.

But the point remains: this has been the worst cycle in bitcoin's history, while the fundamentals (adoption, information, products, institutions) have been the best. What gives? What's the mismatch?

Does this (point to chart above, putting us back to Nov 10) look like a strongly emerging, global reserve asset, with institutions and government allocating and everyone and their grandma coming in?

No, I didn't think so.

Since I can't explain why this nonsense occurs or make sense of it (you can almost never explain market moves), and my fundamental approach to all economics and financial markets is that prices are truth,

what are we missing?
Was this middle section (Nov 10-March 10) just a big mistake?
58k calling etc, and we should go back to pre-Trump?
maybe zero is calling, and Peter Schiff was right all along?

But honestly, sats to the best explanation for why this increasingly liquid and increasingly established asset does this weird stuff (doesn't "behave") and has us along for the ride. Why doesn't it go away with larger flows and Hass Mccook's "DCA Army?"

Best I've seen so far is Checkmate's "air pocket"; we just flew through the 70s and 80s so there's no market price discovery there... so we gotta do back and re-do it. ("but why?" my monkey brain says... what's the law of nature that rules that?)

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260 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 6h

IMO it's all US market driven. Bitcoin still trades like a risky tech stock. Futures are getting crushed right now. Over the weekend btc was the only trade. Trump tariffs, recession talk. I know you think it's a big deal. I don't.

97 sats \ 0 replies \ @SimpleStacker 4h

This. It's probably from all the idiots (automated trading bots?) that treat bitcoin like a risk-on tech stock

77 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 3h

I've been wondering if there isn't something of a let down on the specifics of the SBR. Some amount of SBR was priced in. Maybe there was an expectation of purchasing bitcoin in large quantities and when that didn't realize, some speculators sold.

63 sats \ 2 replies \ @jasonb 5h

All the folks with the big money are getting out of “risk” assets right now. Tariffs, that kind of stuff in the air… I don’t like it either, but I think this matches the current scene.

What we really “need” right now is a big Cyprus style (I don’t actually want this for anyone, it’d just be a thing that would make Bitcoin get all sporty again) government misbehavior. In a lot of ways, D.O.G.E. is the ultimate enemy to Bitcoin NGU. They solve the same problem, and it looks like the former is doing an ok job at the moment.

51 sats \ 1 reply \ @028559d218 3h

The US Republican party passed 1.5 Trillion of spending cuts.

And and 4.5 Trillion tax break over the next 10 years.

That's a 3 Trillion deficit just for these items alone.

The DOGE cuts mostly of personnel are a drop in the bucket.

44 sats \ 0 replies \ @jasonb 2h

Oh yeah, no doubt at all that long term, we’re always on course. I’m just saying that DOGE has a short term narrative that may be shinier than Bitcoin.

108 sats \ 1 reply \ @Aardvark 6h

we just flew through the 70s and 80s so there's no market price discovery there... so we gotta do back and re-do it

I really don't understand why either. It's just like when people claim that we need to "fill the CME gap." We usually do fill that gap, but I have zero idea why.

I just buy the stuff as quickly as I can.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 3h

Thank you for mentioning CME gaps. Learned something new!

34 sats \ 2 replies \ @ek 3h

But the point remains: this has been the worst cycle in bitcoin's history, while the fundamentals (adoption, information, products, institutions) have been the best. What gives? What's the mismatch?

I didn’t look at the chart right now, but hasn’t every cycle been the worst one and the fundamentals have always been mostly the same?

Since I can't explain why this nonsense occurs

Isn’t paper hands always the answer to some degree? But I guess that’s as insightful as answering the question "Why is bitcoin crashing???" with "Because people are selling," lol

prices are truth

I would say prices are eventually truth

77 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 3h

hasn’t every cycle been the worst one

Pretty much, which is exactly what you'd expect and I've seen @denlillaapan express that expectation, too.

As more value is stored in bitcoin, it's just harder to move the exchange rate by the same percentage. Alternatively, as we get nearer to equilibrium purchasing power there's less arbitrage opportunity, so there's less incentive to get in.

28 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 3h

Yeah, I’d be worried when we see -20% or more within a day so early in the cycle.

35 sats \ 0 replies \ @028559d218 5h

We need to 'redo it' because of the lack of education. The overwhelming majority of 'crypto' critics are critics of 'crypto'... NOT of Bitcoin.

And their criticisms... that 'noone uses it' or it's all 'scams' like the trump coin or the blowjob coin (hawk tua) aren't inaccurate... in fact we all basically agree that 'crypto' is a scam too.

What the authors of articles and opinion pieces critiquing 'crypto' haven't done is:

Roll a seed phrase or have one generated open a lightning channel spend Bitcoin via Lightning quickly or cheaply on forums or on goods to improve the 'customer service' experience or anything else actually related to Bitcoin.

'Crypto' critics (who write magazine articles or write for newspapers) don't know what a 'seed phrase' is, they have never heard of Lightning before, they don't know what a UTXO is, they know nothing (or nothing meaningful) about Bitcoin mining...

They don't know what a Bitcoin node is, what hashrate is, a block explorer absolutely nothing... all they see is $Trump coin used to "get rich quick" and their reaction is...

Crypto (and Bitcoin by extension) is a scam. And because it's a scam who would want it?

So no-one wants to buy it, it's all "greater fool" and it 'goes to zero' because 'crypto' like the scams on Youtube, Twitter, or Social Media are completely worthless.

THIS is what the world knows to be true... because this is what many journalists, who don't know what a Bitcoin node is, write about Crypto.

And the president releases his Memecoin to make insiders hundreds of millions so... that's where the focus is. So why should people 'buy crypto' (memecoins obviously) again?

36 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 6h

I think it is related to Trump's accouncement of a bitcoin strategic reserve

Price manipulation via forced and voluntary liquidations especially ETF outflow

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 1h

The bottom or the top both are just illusions for the weak. I don't think the strong even care a little bit about it.

But I agree that the strong can be the weak if they don't ignore the shit.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @flat24 3h

I immediately think the following after reading your publication:

Obviously the price matters, but it is not the most important thing.
The actors who handle the market manipulate the emotions of all of us.
The price will never rise only parabolicly, the price moves in a fractal way, both down and upwards.
After a whole year going up and moving from 16k to 109k and people still complain that it doesn't rise anymore. (It's amazing) Although not so incredible when you discover that most do not even know how Bitcoin works, we will know how the game really works worldwide (economy, geopolitics, politics, among others where Bitcoin directly impacts)
With everything that is happening right now around Bitcoin worldwide, it is impossible not to continue bullish. obviously in the long term that is really the only term worth