The administration’s plans to plug the deficit with tariff revenues (particularly if they are stop-start) and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency are highly questionable. US borrowing costs are already high; fiscal laxity adds to yields. US Treasury demand faces other potential headwinds, such as the forthcoming increase in German Bund issuance. It is easier now to imagine the US becoming caught in a vicious cycle of higher yields and larger debt projections.

Then there are the risks that Trump’s plans lean into: the institutionalisation of crypto, haphazard financial deregulation and potential manipulation of the dollar.