Always!
We're always a decade away from fusion energy or from the dollar imploding. I've contributed to this doomsday forecasting myself ("Dollar Dominance or Dollar Dependence"). One of these days, we'll be (accidentally?!) proven right.
Today Katie Martin joined the show:
Investors are starting to imagine a financial system without the US at its centre, handing Europe an opportunity that it simply must not miss.
Starry-eyed optimists have argued for years that the euro’s slice of the pie should be bigger, but they have been fighting reality.
Cites 57% dollars down from, 70-whatever a generation ago.
US dominance of global debt markets does not have to end with a bang. Large, slow-moving investors would simply have to accumulate other assets rather than necessarily dumping their Treasuries. But over time, the result would be the same. Regime shifts of this kind do not happen often. But they do happen. Sterling was the global reserve currency once too.
Nah, nah, nah. Larry Summers is still right: China is a prison and Europe a museum; the U.S. (and its dollar) is the least dirty shirt in the laundry pile.
Maybe there's, um, one certain other -- pretty neutral -- money that the world's capital markets could turn to.
non-paywalled: https://archive.md/iaXak