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I agree with what you wrote... except for this part - "China has used its natural advantages- size and scale and (near) unity of cultural identity- as the west employed immigration to boost consumption it also diluted its cultural identity and sense of purpose."
I don't think it's about 'cultural identity' or purpose I think it's much, much simpler than that. I don't really think it's about immigration either... but simply laziness.
People get complacent. They want to blame 'foreigners'. They want to blame 'outsiders' and 'other countries' and 'other people' instead of taking responsibility for themselves. We have done that in the United States big time in my opinion... and imo Mr Trump gives many Americans the perfect excuse and avenue for 'who to blame'.
Meanwhile our public education system (in the US) isn't great, young people can't read, can't do math, and there is too much emphasis on pop-celebrity-nonsense instead of education and it shows. If half or more of 14-year-olds 'can't read good' how can the US be a serious global leader?
As far as 'the West' goes... it's not monolithic. Calling 'the West' one singular block as opposed to 'the East' is too big of a generalization. The US economy is very different from the European one, and within the EU cultures vary greatly (like northern Europe from southern Europe) so it's not all the same.
I would like to see some more coverage with regards to China's alternative to Swift... I haven't heard of it or read about it anywhere although I guess it does exist?
Regardless I don't think it can replace Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a shot to be decentralized-enough and Proof-of-Work enough to provide value settlement and storage for almost anyone over extended time periods.... under adverse circumstances and no CBDC can do that.
Here's the WSJ opinion piece, definitely food for thought-
'With his first weeks back in office, and especially after Friday’s Oval Office brawling with Ukraine’s president, it’s clear President Trump has designs for a new world order. Perhaps he could share this vision with the country when he addresses Congress on Tuesday.
The conventional view of Mr. Trump is that he’s above all transactional. He wants deals, at home and abroad, that he can sell as great successes. But the way his second term is unfolding, this may undersell his ambition. Mr. Trump’s strategy seems to be moving toward that of Tucker Carlson and JD Vance, who view America as in decline and no longer able to lead or defend the West.
It seems clear that Mr. Trump wants to wash his hands of Ukraine. “You’re either going to make a deal, or we’re out,” Mr. Trump ordered Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. This will embolden Vladimir Putin to insist on even harsher terms for a cease-fire deal. Mr. Trump seems mainly concerned with rehabilitating Mr. Putin in world councils, such as the G-7. He wants an early summit with the Russian, though Mr. Putin has made no concessions on Ukraine or anything else.
While he solicits Moscow, Mr. Trump is hammering traditional U.S. friends. He plans 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, in violation of his own USMCA trade deal, and his defense secretary has threatened to invade Mexico to pursue drug cartels. He wants to hit Western Europe with heavy tariffs on its autos, and slap reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the trading world.
These tariffs are harsher than those he has put on China. He is clearly courting Xi Jinping, the Communist Party boss, calling him a great leader and talking about a new mutual understanding. He has shown no similar interest in defending Taiwan, and he has said in the past that China can easily dominate the island democracy in a conflict. Watching Mr. Trump and Ukraine, the leaders of Taiwan and Japan should be deeply worried.
Meanwhile in the Americas, Mr. Trump has demanded control over the Panama Canal, which the U.S. ceded by treaty in 1999. And he wants Denmark to sell Greenland to the U.S. These moves taken together hint at a worldview that has long been the goal of American isolationists: Let China dominate the Pacific, Russia dominate Europe, and the U.S. the Americas. The Middle East would presumably remain a region of contention, a least until Mr. Trump does a nuclear deal with Iran.
All of this would amount to an epochal return to the world of great power competition and balance of power that prevailed before World War II. It’s less a brave new world than a reversion to a dangerous old one.
Mr. Trump hasn’t articulated this, but some of the intellectuals surrounding him have. Elbridge Colby, nominated for the chief strategy post at the Pentagon, has argued that the U.S. must leave Europe and the Middle East to their own devices to focus on the Asia-Pacific. But Mr. Colby has also said that South Korea might have to fend for itself, and he said in a letter to us last year that “Taiwan isn’t itself of existential importance to America.”
Mr. Vance is the most vigorous promoter of the abandon Ukraine strategy, arguing that the war with Russia is little more than an ethnic dispute. Ross Douthat, the New York Times columnist who has become Mr. Vance’s Boswell, says the Vice President and President are merely “stripping away foreign policy illusions.” He says they believe America is “overstretched” and needs to “recalibrate and retrench.”

Yet that isn’t what either leader is saying openly. Mr. Trump says he is making America great again, not retreating from the defense of freedom. He says he wants “peace,” but is it peace with honor, or the peace of the grave for Ukraine and accommodation to Chinese domination in the Pacific? And why isn’t he increasing defense spending?
If Messrs. Trump and Vance really are “stripping away” illusions, why not have the courage to say what those illusions are? Perhaps it’s because such retreat might not be as popular as vague promises of peace. And perhaps because American retreat might not be as peaceful as they think.
If Russia drives peace on its terms in Ukraine, look for Russia to invade elsewhere in the future and other stronger states to grab territory from their neighbors. Look for America’s allies to seek new trading and security relationships that don’t rely on the U.S. and might conflict with U.S. interests. Japan will have little choice but to become a nuclear power to deter China, and there will be others.
As Charles Krauthammer famously said, decline is a choice. Mr. Trump has an obligation to tell Americans what new order he thinks he is building. Then we can have a debate about his intentions and its consequences. Tuesday night would be a good moment to make his ambitions clear.'
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A dominant and therefore confident society will tolerate and listen to different viewpoints and may allow immigrants without feeling threatened but if decline starts then recent arrivals will be the first to be scapegoated as Trump does so cleverly. However defeated nations tend to be much more protective of their cultural integrity- Japan and China since WW2 have been very reluctant to accept immigrants more than necessary. If/when war comes and you have as the west does today a very diverse population it can be a major problem - as Muslim communities experienced post twin towers, as Asian and other immigrant communities are feeling increasingly in the west as the west struggles with its declining power. Immigrants are not to blame for seeking a better life and often contributing a lot to the economy and culture- but when/if war looms they are not inherently as aligned to the united sense of purpose that is required. You are right in that the west has always absorbed other cultures and taken from them as it has expanded- look at English language- a true mongrel of so many different sources to be sure! And new people bring new vigour and ideas to a culture- but they do also erode its cultural unity- something that the west seems to no longer have.
There is not a lot of coverage of Chinas alternate payments because much of this is routing payments in avoidance of SWIFT/US sanctions but there are occasional mentions of it and it appears to be centred/built upon Hong Kongs pivotal role in the global banking system and since Chinas resumption of sovereignty there a lot of CCP members are found working at the likes of HSBC!
There is a more available about the Chinese CBDC which is known to be operational and designed specifically to be an alternative to SWIFT, (Chinas (and BRICS more generally) strong belief that an alternative is required is no secret) but yes, the use of these new channels is not greatly publicised as the payments are in shadow markets where avoiding SWIFT sanctions is the purpose- Iran has continued to function economically by selling oil to China via shadow fleets and recieving payment via shadow banking/payments for well over a decade- and now Russia selling most of its gas and much of its oil to China and again maintaining the ability to source manufactured goods in return- Chinas manufacturing base is sufficient to provision both Iran and Russia and support their economy and derivative military capability despite US/SWIFT sanctions- without China in the picture those sanctions would have been much more effective. N.Koreas breaching of US sanctions via China has been even longer standing- the lorries moving goods over the border, after dark, for decades.
Other nations are surely noticing that now, being sanctioned from SWIFT is not economic collapse - as long as you have some commodities China wants...they can supply you with most of the manufactured goods required for a functional economy.
In fact very few economies could now function optimally without Chinese supply chains feeding into their economies.
Domination of trade payments/banking logically goes with domination in trade itself- and China now dominates global trade- so while US power is now hugely reliant upon its legacy USD/SWIFT/IMF hegemony, its a sensitive subject and why Trump threatens 100% tariffs on anyone breaking rank. China could achieve a bloodless coup where the dollar collapses and Yuan becomes the dominant currency of trade. Hopefully Bitcoin can be used for more international trade but such a change would require a radical change in the power dynamics where in the west banks hold our governments over a barrel of debt and China seems unlikely to allow/enable Bitcoin trade payments, even though such a move would overcome some of the resistance there is and will be to China controlling trade payments in a manner similar to how US does now.
There may be be a secondary role for Bitcoin in nations and individuals seeking to avoid both USD in its decline and Chinese Yuan/CBDC in its rise.
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Hopefully Bitcoin can be used for more international trade but such a change would require a radical change in the power dynamics where in the west banks hold our governments over a barrel of debt and China seems unlikely to allow/enable Bitcoin trade payments...
Friend we're seeing it. This is a truly remarkable period of change... everything is changing that's why it is so shocking and why I made this post.
See the WSJ today (a 'traditional conservative' newspaper...) everything is changing and nothing is off the table especially Bitcoin.
"Trump’s Old World Order: Does he want deals with Russia and China to carve up the planet? He should tell Americans." https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-brave-old-world-foreign-policy-ukraine-blow-up-china-russia-trade-allies-7e32b02a?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
What's crazier is how everything is changing, everyone can see it and still Mr. Trump's suggestion is to create a 'crypto reserve' which could easily, eventually take value and control away from the US dollar network.
Bitcoin is obviously quite valuable, individuals can hold it, send it, and receive it globally in very short order, and it cannot be remotely confiscated or easily censored. And the US is 'promoting' it while threatening 'the BRCIS'. How does that make sense.
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It is hard to make sense of what Trump is doing except that he seems to be a master of using shock tactics and confusion to disrupt convention. Maybe there is method to his apparent madness. What I could read of the WSJ article does ring true. Trump acknowledging the declining viability of global US hegemony and doing deals with China and Russia to arrange a new global power structure where perhaps the US can preserve some of what is at stake because seeking to preserve everything is no longer viable. Such an approach might make a Bitcoin/crypto reserve logical at the same time as seeking to continue with USD/SWIFT trade payments hegemony as long as possible. There may be a market for using crypto/Bitcoin for trade payments as an alternative to both USD and Yuan. At least Bitcoin is genuinely neutral and many nations are going to be reluctant to switch directly to Chinese CBDC Yuan. Putting on my hopium hat - perhaps Bitcoin could emerge as a neutral means of exchange protocol in an increasingly multi-polar and divided world.
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I agree. I personally believe we'll probably get there... eventually. What a world that would be.
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