The global economy faces a historic turning point with the emergence of Bitcoin as a strategic asset in U.S. state reserves. The combination of limited supply (only 2.5 million BTC available on exchanges), programmed reduction of emissions through halvings (next one in 2028 with a reward of 1.5625 BTC per block), and the legislative race in states like Utah and Arizona to allocate up to 5% of public funds to Bitcoin, is creating a geoeconomic dynamic comparable to the space race. This article explores two divergent scenarios: a devaluation of the dollar due to uncontrolled monetary issuance to acquire BTC, or its revaluation through partial backing in Bitcoin, reviving the gold standard of the 20th century. The data suggests that the window for an orderly transition is rapidly narrowing.
The accelerated depletion of exchange reserves
Bitcoin reserves on exchange platforms have reached historic lows of 2.5 million BTC, a level not seen since 2022. This figure represents only 1.3% of the total supply of 19.6 million BTC mined up to February 2025. The pace of withdrawals has accelerated since the approval of institutional ETFs in the U.S., whose issuers acquired the equivalent of 20 times the daily production of miners during 2024. If this trend continues, exchange reserves could be depleted in less than 18 months, considering an average daily demand of 4,500 BTC.
This phenomenon has created a "structural supply shock," where the artificial scarcity generated by institutional accumulators (funds, corporations, governments) is disconnecting Bitcoin's price from traditional fundamentals. As Michael Saylor noted: "Soon every billionaire will buy a billion in Bitcoin, and we'll stop measuring it in fiat terms".
The Legislative Race: Bitcoin as a Strategic Weapon for the USA and its States
Before delving into details, it would be good to emphasize certain figures:
Currently, approximately 450 bitcoins are generated every day. This is because:
- Approximately 144 new blocks are mined per day on the Bitcoin blockchain.
- Each mined block has a reward of 3.125 BTC.
- 144 blocks x 3.125 BTC = 450 BTC daily.
Providing an approximate annual calculation of 164700 BTC
We also attach the purchases made by the United States Treasury
Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced the "Bitcoin Act 2024", which proposes:
- Purchasing 200,000 BTC annually, over a period of 5 years.
- 200,000 BTC x 5 years = 1,000,000 BTC in 5 years.
Now counting the states:
Utah and Arizona: Laboratories of State Adoption
Utah has emerged as a pioneer with the HB230 project, approved in the House of Representatives by a vote of 8-1 on January 28, 2025. This law authorizes the state treasury to:
-
Allocate up to 5% of public funds to Bitcoin and stablecoins.
-
Participate in staking and lending of crypto assets.
-
Establish custody protocols with regulated companies.
Arizona responds with SB1025, allowing allocations of 10% to Bitcoin, while Illinois proposes a state fund with a minimum holding period of 5 years. According to VanEck, the combined implementation of these laws in 20 states could mobilize $23 billion towards Bitcoin, equivalent to 1.2% of the current circulating supply.
State Hoarding Mechanics: Concerning Numbers
Considering that:
-
The 20 proposing states represent $9.4 trillion in GDP (higher than Latin America).
-
A conservative allocation of 1% of reserves would equal $94 billion.
-
At the average price of $97,000/BTC, this would buy 969,000 BTC.
Average user consumption:
- Consumption Rate = 31,400 BTC / 50 days ≈ 628 BTC per day
| Balances of this year | Amount (BTC) | Balance (BTC) |
|---|---|---|
| Exchange | +2,500,000 | 2,500,000 |
| BTC mined during the year | +164,700 | 2,664,700 |
| First-year purchase by the US Treasury | -200,000 | 2,464,700 |
| Approximate purchase by the states | -969,000 | 1,495,700 |
| Average user consumption | -230,000 | 1,265,700 |
With 750,000 BTC still pending for the next 4 years, a balance of 515,700 BTC remains "unclaimed" for pre-purchase, distributed over the next 4 years.
This calculation only considers the United States, as you can see, the path for BTC is rapidly narrowing for countries wanting to include BTC in their portfolios after 4 years of scarcity on exchanges. (These timeframes are approximate based on the numbers, not accounting for asset supply and demand or OTC markets).
The Two Scenarios of ₿-Day
Scenario 1: Hyperbitcoinization through Competitive Dollar Devaluation
If states accelerate purchases without fiscal coordination, the Fed could be forced to expand its balance sheet to finance acquisitions, repeating patterns from 2020-2024 when M2 grew by 45%. Each $1 trillion printed to buy Bitcoin at $100,000 would generate:
-
Inflation of 6-8% annually.
-
Loss of 30-40% in dollar purchasing power.
-
Capital flight to BTC in emerging economies.
This scenario would replicate the 1971 crisis when Nixon suspended the gold/dollar convertibility, but with Bitcoin as the new anchor. The probability increases if:
-
More than 10 states implement Bitcoin reserves in 2025.
-
The price exceeds $150,000, making massive purchases prohibitive.
Scenario 2: Resurgence of the Dollar Backed by Bitcoin
Alternatively, the U.S. could formalize a partial backing of the dollar with Bitcoin, similar to the Bretton Woods gold standard. Considering:
-
Current gold reserves: 8,133 tons ($650 billion).
-
To match this value in Bitcoin at $100,000/BTC: it would need 6.5 million BTC.
Currently, this is impossible (only 2.5M BTC on exchanges), but a multi-year accumulation strategy (5% annually of mining production) would allow:
-
Acquiring 164,000 BTC/year (50% of post-2028 issuance).
-
Reaching 1 million BTC in 6 years, backing 15% of M1.
This approach would make the dollar the first fiat currency partially backed by crypto assets, attracting global capital and reducing interest rates.
The Halving Factor: Countdown to Supply Shock
Chronometry of Programmed Scarcity
The April 2024 halving reduced daily emission from 900 to 450 BTC. The next one in 2028 will cut it to 225 BTC/day, coinciding with:
-
Projected depletion of exchange reserves (2026-2027).
-
Maturation of state reserves (Utah plans 5% by 2025).
This "double squeeze" on supply could multiply the price by 5-7x according to Stock-to-Flow models, potentially driving Bitcoin to $500,000-700,000 by 2030. In such a context, the projected $23 billion in state purchases would represent only 32,857 BTC at $700,000, highlighting the diminishing window of opportunity.
Conclusion: Bitcoin as a Thermometer of Monetary Sovereignty
The race for Bitcoin is redefining monetary geopolitics. While China and Russia are known to accumulate gold, this doesn't exclude the possibility of them acquiring other assets. Focusing on history and its course, multiple factors grant an asset the title of store of value, and only time will clarify this doubt. Could gold become the next aluminum? (Russia and China possess confiscated BTC, allowing us to affirm that all world powers have some BTC)
As we can see, the U.S. is playing an innovative card with state BTC reserves. The next 24 months will be critical: if more than 10 states allocate 5% to Bitcoin, it will trigger a network effect that will force the Fed to choose between massive inflation or strategic adoption.
Paradoxically, Bitcoin could save the dollar from itself, offering a credible digital anchor in a world of runaway fiat. As in 1944 with Bretton Woods, the U.S. has the opportunity to lead a new monetary order, but this time built on open-source code instead of agreements between bankers. Bitcoin Day will mark which path prevails.
Thank you very much for your kind reading, given the speed of the news it is likely that some data are somewhat outdated but what are the calculations is passed to fixed price and external data.