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In these two articles I’ll outline how we will end the decade with two currencies left standing.
Most people assume these two currencies left standing will be in violent opposition to each other, but I’m not so sure. I believe they will form a symbiotic relationship where they compliment each other.
Gravity is gravity, and there’s an estimated $300 trillion of economic gravity around the world making it likely that the U.S. dollar will be the last fiat currency to hyperinflate.
If the Fed wants the global economy to function effectively, it simply must supply dollars to the world. This is a key point. In a globally interconnected world during peacetime, it makes sense the Fed would supply the world with the needed dollars.
It’s paramount to remember: All fiat currencies are losing purchasing power against goods and services.
In this dollar bull cycle, it’s not just fringe emerging markets that are suffering from the soaring U.S. dollar. Every single currency is being decimated against the mighty greenback.
The European Central Bank looks to be in crisis mode as they’ve barely gotten interest rates into the positive realm, while the Fed has moved its federal funds rate to almost 4%.
I do believe that commodities are significantly undervalued and that we will see a 2020s “commodities supercycle,” due to decades of underinvestment in the industry. I also believe securing commodities and energy will play a key role in a nation’s security, as the world continues to deglobalize. However — disagreeing with Pozsar here — backing money with commodities isn’t the solution to the problem the world is facing.
I believe the U.S. dollar will be the last fiat currency to hyperinflate, and I actually expect it to hold on to the reserve currency status until this long-term debt cycle concludes. To go one step further, I actually think there’s a strong possibility that the United States will be the last country ever to hold the title of “global reserve currency issuer” if they play their cards right.