In the midst of the 30-year Peloponnesian War, factions of Athens deemed an invasion of Sicily critical to overall victory. Inherent to their argument was the reality that Sicily would be impossibly lucrative if victorious. So it was then, so it is now: potential profit often clouds sound judgment.

The opposition lost and the attack proceeded. It took the entire fleet and all its citizen manpower and it was entirely defeated. During the multi-year effort, the factions that drove it fused into an oligarchy that perpetuated itself and its war until its incompetence and complete defeat undermined its despotism. It still took the Demos physically overthrowing the Oligarchy for democracy to be restored in Athens.3

Athens could rebuild the ships. But it could not rebuild the men. Thirty thousand citizen sailors were lost in the expedition – the heart of Athens’ civilizational power. The demographic catastrophe is considered a cause of Athens’ eventual defeat in the war and its civilizational decline.4

Two decades ago, factions argued that biowarfare threats were so significant that biodefense responsibility needed to be removed from the purview of the uniformed military and placed within NIAID under NIH and under HHS. There were structural and efficiency reasons to do this but the intangible reason was that the uniformed military officer corps would not stain its honor with biowarfare. It had held the line with the bioweapons convention since Nixon axed the US bioweapons program, so it had to be removed from the picture for the factions to proceed.

This action, called BioShield, fused the pharmaceutical industry with biodefense and fused the public health agencies with the intelligence community. The two entities in America not held accountable by law or practice, the vaccine industry and the intelligence community (IC), were joined into one. Though done to achieve a positive aim, it is obvious in hindsight that this fusion would create unaccountable oligarchy. Its most apparent manifestation is the director of NIAID’s salary, the highest in government and higher than the president’s, with corresponding tangible worldwide political power. This power structure was known previously to insiders5 but only became visible to the public during the Covid response. It also goes without saying that merging medicine with biodefense under the pretext of foreign biothreats is impossibly lucrative. So it was then, so it is now: potential profit often clouds sound judgment.

Whether America’s version of the Sicilian Expedition will have the same result as the Athenians’ remains to be seen. The parallels inform how our maritime democracy navigates its way forward. The primary lesson is that which every quality sports team and mature military formation understands: lie to yourself about yourself and you will be weak; know yourself – know your weaknesses – and you will be stronger. Or unperiled in a hundred battles, as a Chinese military philosopher once said.