Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2025
As we look ahead to 2025, there is no shortage of expert forecasts and predictions for what will happen to the world’s economy, markets, geopolitics, and technology in 2025.
In this now sixth year of our Prediction Consensus (part of our comprehensive 2025 Global Forecast Series presented by Inigo Insurance), we’ve summarized the most common predictions and forecasts by experts into a single visual of what they expect to happen in 2025.
Drawing from our predictions database of over 800 forecasts compiled from reports, interviews, podcasts, and more, the Prediction Consensus “bingo card” and this article offer an overview of the most cited trends and opportunities that experts are watching for the rest of the year.
Economy and Markets Forecasts for 2025
Based on the hundreds of economic forecasts and predictions we’ve sifted through, many analysts and experts share matching views on what’s ahead for inflation, interest rates, and economic growth in 2025.
Global inflation forecasts for 2025: Inflation is expected to continue easing in 2025 across many economies, with global inflation expected to drop from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025. However, some experts predict tariffs could drive acute inflation as firms pass additional costs onto consumers.
Interest rate forecasts for 2025: Further interest rate cuts are projected for the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in 2025, while the Bank of Japan was expected to bump rates by 25 bps this year, and has already followed through with their rate hike to 0.50%–a level not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Global markets forecasts for 2025: Forecasters are quite bullish on the markets, with positive S&P 500 forecasts in the 10% to 20% range and an expected broadening of returns beyond the Magnificent 7 expected for 2025. Consensus expectations see U.S. equities leading earnings while Europe rebounds and Asia softens.
Gold prices are expected to continue to surge this year, with experts positioning it as both an effective hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and a general portfolio diversifier. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are also expected to see growth as the Trump administration advances pro-crypto policies and global economies develop more structured regulatory frameworks for digital assets.
Global real GDP growth forecasts for 2025: The outlook for global growth continues to be fairly stable heading into 2025. Global GDP growth forecasts range from 2.7% to 3.2%, squarely in the range of IMF’s 10-year average (2015-2024) of 3.1%.
The U.S. and China are both expected to experience slower growth in 2025, with the IMF projecting U.S. GDP growth at 2.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from 2024, and China’s at 4.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from last year. Read More..