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Based on historical cycles I can see a one off ultra low of something similar to previous lows, after the 2018 bull and 2020 bull.
But have we hit the bullseye aka top of the 2024 bull yet?
Based on 100k as the peak, a 30k low which isn't priced in but just a footnote for where the train is currently.
Let's say the 2018 bull was a 20x, the 2020 bull was 15x, if this bull is 10x from the bear, we're looking at a 160k peak, so a 50k low is my prediction.
I'm basing this on volatility petering out over halvings in a simplistic linear fashion.
Pure speculation
I agree that there is a good chance that we have not yet reached the top of this bull market. That target of 160 sounds reasonable!
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Good analysis, it might be plausible.
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I appreciate the thoughtful analysis -- thanks for showing your thinking!
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2016* apologies 😭
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